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To: Investor2 who wrote (55966)	8/10/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Inv2. you are correct in your assumption we are entering a slowdown or recession in Q4. That is why I am loading up in treasury strip. Haim

To: Investor2 who wrote (55966)	8/11/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I didn't say you're making a mistake. You're just willing to take more risk in here than I am.<g> My exposure to equity market risk is now under 20%, but that 20% has a very high beta. RE: "Flattening of the yield curve predicts lower long-term rates in the future." Using today's term structure,yes, forward rates would imply lower future interest rates . But keep in mind the entire curve can shift upward while adjusting to higher GDP and additional Fed tightening. Historically, when the 30yr/10yr.spread is negative a recession has always followed. Maybe "its different this time" but its a risk that is not factored in this stock market for sure. Paraphrasing a quote from "Groundhog Day", GZ may be "a God" but he is not "Thee God".<g> Parroting his futures trading with equity investment timing could prove dangerous. He is obviously a well-heeled, former professional trader that can turn his positions on a dime and also suffer substantial losses. My view on rates and equity risks still remains higher and my perceived risk/reward tradeoff for this market mandates a conservative posture for my portfolios. Good luck.