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Biotech / Medical : CTEC: Cholestech any other investors? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (678)	8/15/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 710

Al, sorry I was away.. Thanks for your thoughts on the market. You outlined most of the fears that were holding it back, and now we have at least a "relief rally" to offset all that market pessimism. OK, Al, <G> I was afraid you had misread something I had optimistically posted....I'm more positive than ever on CTEC, but not enough to change the targets yet.. As it is, we need quite a few breaks to hit the targets we're already set. With a little adjustment, I'm still using the possibility of $.40/share next year, and a followon growth rate of 50% as the basis for my out year targets. Those were the numbers analysts had posted in Yahoo research before the unfortunate events of last year for CTEC... Resolving those numbers with the help of my trusty TI BA-35 gives an earnings per share number, five years out, of just over $3.00/share. Even a cautious PE of 20 makes that a share price of 60. If we were to get on a trend pointing to that kind of success, then we should be seeing something like earnings on a track towards $.60/share in 18 months, and the market could assign a PE of 40, for a stock price of 24. OK, so we are boring the heck out of everybody with the prognostication, but it helps, imho, to have in mind at least the kind of scenario necessary to achieve one's goals. If CTEC cannot get on that track, and we have to recalculate, well then it comes time to re-evaluate the decision to hold, as well... But, given CTEC's history, SOMEBODY thought they were on such a track, or the stock would never have been above 15. Now, about that 14-bagger--- <gg> tso

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (678)	8/25/1999 11:11:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 710

Al, "CTEC Earnings Estimate Raised 57%" (!!) We are getting some CTEC research updates, I notice as I return from the traveling game. The good news is that the estimated earnings for CTEC through the March 00 quarter are now raised to $.30 from the previous $.19, at least on the Yahoo Finance site. Also good news is that this is a fresh estimate by a different analyst -- somebody must have actually visited the company and done a little "DD" before posting. The bad news is that the projected growth rate for CTEC over the following five years has now been cut to 25% from 50%. However, we must agree that is a more believable target than the previous one, wouldn't we? And this one might conceivably be exceeded--hopefully? Anyway the new stock price target, five years out, at a PE of 30, is moved to 27, or 369% above the current price of 5 3/4. Any current thoughts on the market? tso