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To: Ron Dior who wrote (13983)	8/11/1999 12:10:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

They only gave you one time frame. Next time frame it's 70% and who is the loser is random. So in each frame 70% lose. In n frames that's (.70)^n who win. Actually the figures for traders are nearer to 95% and option players 98%. So ((1-.95)^n)*(# of players) so in 5 years with 10 million traders, none succeed. This is born out by brokerage house statistics which are closely guarded secrets. At 70% one in 500 can expect to have succeeded in 5 years, so there are lots of guys sitting around ahead. That won't last. You can't play the bear like you can the bull. You get chopped up on the downside shorting and you get chopped up going long. You can't play, but that's the one thing that pseudo-success in trading guarantees won't happen. You haven't been playing the game long enough to understand this, but given your losses you have to be paying attention. Unfortunately, you don't have the mathematical sophistication to believe what is actuarial, so you will have to go to ruin. It's the law.