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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kathyh who wrote (52707)	8/11/1999 12:08:00 AM
From: Jack Colton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 90042

Hi kathy! I tend to agree with Tim's sentiment about this being a short term rally. At least last year, the 'summer high tech sell off' lasted until the first week of October. With Y2K on the horizon, I am wondering if even October would be a good entry point... since some might be drawing money out of the markets out of fear. I suspect we will see some real bargains in a couple of weeks. But, as usual, just when I think I have this market figured out, it usually does just about the opposite... Listening to the talking heads this afternoon, you would think that the Nuts have seen their bottoms, and they are all headed straight back up..... just about made me lose my appetite..

To: kathyh who wrote (52707)	8/11/1999 8:35:00 AM
From: stan s.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

>>>a simple correction<<< Hi kathy, I think you inadvertently left out the phrase "so far." <g> I try to remove emotion when I look at charts and simply reflect on what I see, without attempting to reach. The Nasdaq was screaming correction (sell) in late July...now it becomes an exercise in determining how to react at this point. If key support gives way we could match last years decline but to panic now before support gives way would in my opinion be a mistake. In other words, at this point, I would wait to see what happens...I'm talking in general market terms here, not individual stocks, they have to be assessed on a one by one basis. Here's a chart that shows last years (Naz) correction and this years. They both started at virtually identical points in July around quarterly earnings. Last years dip was about a 25% decline, this one's has been about 15%. geocities.com The key last year was the failure to hold support. I'm using the trend line here as support for simplification, there are others. When it failed to hold last year it turned into the severest correction in a long time. The failure was accompanied by the break of the 200 day moving average. The trend thus far this year has been to test the trend line and bounce up. Will it continue to do so? I dunno!! But at this late date, I would see how it reacts before I make decisions....if it does break down, other options become available such as shorting etc. Time for discipline and logic not emotion. Easier said than done. By the way, note the comeback when last year's correction was over....amazing! As for stocks and sector's doing well. Jane and others have mentioned oil related. The OSX (oil service) broke a quad top resistance last week and looks good. It may decide to test support any time but overall I like it and several individual oil related. I think you mentioned PTEN once...broke over resistance just recently... Stan