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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Dior who wrote (14004)	8/11/1999 1:14:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Told you that you didn't understand the elementary math. That means you have these prejudices that you must cling to otherwise the truth puts the lie to what you need to believe. That is usually fatal. Trading is a negative expected return game worse than Vegas and similar to slot machines. The longer you play the greater the probability that you will approach the expected return. In any population there exists outliers, winners, in the distribution whose outcome is not representative of what any individual can expect. The outlier doesn't design the outlying occurrence, they just happen to end up there and they look at that as though it was due to their great skill and ability. A priori odds are independent of the outlier's history and so that outlier is likely to revert back to the distribution and that means starts to give back what was given by fortune. So I reiterate, it is ALL. You're a fool to argue. If you don't believe me, hire a mathematician who knows probability. They will confirm every last word I've stated. The complement of trading is that which is not trading, holding. Holding benefits by the a priori positive expected return intrinsic in growing wealth. When you trade you disengage from that positive participation and subject yourself to negative participation. Every trader believes they have the skill to beat the game. Long experience proves to the contrary. Knowledge proves that the game is not beatable. It is structured not to be just like Vegas' staying open depends on the games of chance having negative expected returns. If stock trading had a positive expected return, everyone would play it. The usual argument I get at this point is that some have special abilities or systems. Random selection has a better a priori expectation than such abilities and systems. Please give me any system or any hot shot and I will make fools out of them either in theory or practice. I always have fun exposing frauds.