To: Tim Luke who wrote (52755 ) 8/11/1999 2:33:00 AM From: d:oug Respond to of 90042
Tim Luke's RULES: no rumors unless they can be backed up Tim, I noticed on SI's home page that this thread was # 2 in catagory of Hot threads. Cisco was # 1, but most likely it was because of very good or very bad news being released. I read the last couple dozen posts here and was hoping that some insight into the market could be obtained, but all that I read was folks just talking and joking with one another. Could you please direct me to a thread that discusses in a general way what areas of the market are to be avoided. I'am thinking about gold because I heard that its at a 20 year low and might go up or even sharply up because of rumors. The following is an article about hear-say rumor stuff, and at the end is where it came from. Thanks. Doug ... gold will come back into fashion and become the new "in" play. Gold will replace "derivatives" as the place to be... ... Go back 8 months in time...someone had told you the following August, the price of oil would be $21.25, bond yields rise from 5% to 6.25%, the credit market spreads would widen to decade high levels signifying severe liquidity problems in credit markets and many of the bank stocks would be trading 40% off their highs, what would you have said the price of gold would be today? $300? - $350? - $400? - $450? - $500? The fact that the gold price is only $257.30 is ludicrous and makes no sense, unless you understand that the market has been manipulated to serve the interests of various bullion dealers, U.S. officialdom, certain hedge funds and, to some curious degree, the British government. ... until this "collusion crowd" loses their iron hand grip on the market, the price of gold will not do what it should be doing. That is the bad news. The good news is they ARE losing their grip and the price of gold is headed for $500 to $1,000 per ounce... I firmly believe that the "Hannibal" crowd has made a very big miscalculation - and that is they very much underestimated what the normal supply/demand balance is... ... "strain" in the gold market...the 12 month lease rate chart:cognite.com "... current crisis is likely to accelerate the dismantling in many Asian countries of the remnants of a system with large element of government directed investment, in which finance played a key role in carrying out the state's objectives. Such a system inevitably has led to the investment excesses and errors to which all similar endeavors seem prone." "Government directed production, financed with directed bank loans, cannot readily adjust to the continuously changing patterns of market demand for domestically consumed goods or exports. Gluts and shortages are inevitable. The accelerated opening up in recent years of product and financial markets worldwide offers enormous benefits to all nations over the long run. However, it has also exposed more quickly and harshly the underlying rigidities of economic systems in which government---or government working with large industrial groups---exercise substantial influence over resource allocation. Such systems can produce vigorous growth for a time when the gap between indigenous applied technologies and world standards is large... ... as the gap narrows, the ability of these systems to handle their increasingly sophisticated economies declines markedly." ... lease rates are going up for a reason. Demand for gold far exceeds supply at the moment. It is a very dangerous situation for the shorts. They need borrowed gold to be fed into the market place to ration surging gold demand; yet, ... It is ironic that the Bank of England, in one of their Abbott and Costello explanations about the mysterious someone in Britain who made the decision to sell their gold... ...Who was the brain child in the English Treasury who made this decision? Will it be revealed some day that "Hannibal Lechter" actually made the decision? That will go over big with the English electorate. "Hannibal Lechter and Co's"...They have bigger problems coming their way. It is called "being found out". It is not only the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee that has spotlighted their manipulation. A concurrence of events is going against them - and they are a very nervous lot. ..."Hannibals" are being found out in "derivative" land. It is only a matter of a bit of time before their gold gig goes gonzo. Voila! ... that J. P. Morgan heads up the Counterparty Risk Management Group with fellow bullion dealer, Goldman Sachs. The news is that a real "derivative discovery process" is underway... ... That light is shining on the bullion dealer crowd and how they have used derivatives to manipulate certain markets. ... on the widening credit spreads...hedge fund or other financial institution investment horror stories that will surface... ... gold will come back into fashion and become the new "in" play. Gold will replace "derivatives" as the place to be... Midas du Metropole - The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafelemetropolecafe.com Copyright 1999, All Rights Reserved