To: Bridge Player who wrote (29106 ) 8/12/1999 4:07:00 AM From: Crystal ball Respond to of 41369
Many kinds of inflation. Price, Supply Demand. Labor Inflation is incorrect theory, and the Beige Book proves it. To say, okay, if they raise rates 50 basis points instead of 25 (0.25%) on the Fed Funds the US 30 Year Treas will be 7% or higher, to say this will provide RELIEF from Greenspan induced inflation fears (unfounded fears of inflation from an incorrect perception of a labor shortage) that is like saying, if we cut off the arm, no make that cut off both arms (50 points) of the worker, well hell thats good for him, good for us "Owners" too, hell, he will have to work cheaper....that's Greenspan's definition of productivity....Greenspan is wrong also on the basic concept of technology when he says that productivity can not go up indefinitely...no one said infinitely, but that how he portrays it. If FACT techonology, as long as mankind has BRAINS will continue to INDEFINITELY INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY or is paradise just around that Greenspan corner....Here is the limit, never better than this...this is it...thats all there can be. Give me a break. HE is out of touch. With washington, and with our Internet Revolution. Ask Bill Gates sometime about how he surpassed Warren Buffet in wealth, he describes his friend Warren as never using computers or the internet...until Bill tells him you can play Bridge on the internet with your Friends which made Warren Buffet an avid user. Greenspan (From the same old school) just doesn't get it, unlike the internet generation of say even 1st or 2nd graders!!! Back to your issue, and my response: THE BEST THING THE FED CAN DO IS LOWER INTEREST RATES AND ADMIT THEY WERE WRONG. That would be a rally, it would not be inflationary, there are other market forces for that, keeping inflation in check (not flat, but in check) better than killing off 25-30% of the Stock Markets which are over half our GDP. No one rewards a fellow who throws away 12-15% of their annual paycheck, and everyone elses to boot. Aug 24 may determine if he gets the boot off the Fed. Rubin is now available. I am, Truly yours, -Crystal ball