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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7999)	8/11/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78821

Mike, re: ANLY,Bill Miller,PEP ANLY: the dividend will be paid to shareholders of record as of Aug 13, Friday. How much of the quick move this afternoon relates to the upcoming dividend? Bill Miller: He focuses not much on PE but return on capital. See this 8/99 article from Money: cgi.pathfinder.com Here is an excerpt included here for discussion purposes: Unwilling to accept the idea that value investing was something that went in and out of style, Miller began to look back at his picks over the years to try to figure out what characteristics his winners had in common. "It became clear to me," he says now, "that low P/E and low price-to-book were not the best predictors of return." After all, he adds, "crummy" valuations don't automatically signal that a stock is undervalued; sometimes they mean that "the underlying business is crummy." The measure that he locked on to instead--the one that best predicted whether a stock would be a winner, according to his research--was return on capital. That is, the companies that did the best job of creating new value by reinvesting their capital were most likely to be rewarded with high stock prices. PEP: Held tough yesterday, more or less treading water today. Read your thoughts on it on valuestocks.net...what is your target? I may take a position.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7999)	8/11/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78821

Two value (imo) stocks I like: BBDC, ACAS: I like the general category of "investment companies." With them, and especially with these two, because they are microcaps with not a lot of history, and because this also holds true for the companies that they loan to and/or invest in (often private companies, so there's not much info. available to the general public) -- it's perhaps prudent to own a package of these "investment companies". I'd say say that an investor ought to have patience- stock performance seems (imo) to come slowly. And earnings can be erratic as the companies sell some of the stocks or options that they hold. I forgot who else on the thread besides me likes the category, but for that person, here's some info on the two I am buying now: ACAS: Added to my position after they reported good quarterly earnings. They just now are completing a secondary at $17. (Stock is at 17 this am.) Book value (Yahoo) about $14. No LTD. They primarily loan money to small businesses. 9.7% dividend yield. BBDC: Started a new position. Stock is going for about 7 3/16 this am. They are investors. They hold $5.7/sh in cash (including about 80c just committed to a new business investment). Book value is about $12.8. No LTD. (These are based on Yahoo figures. Latest SEC Quarterly slightly different.) -g- JMHO, but these two companies might be better investments now than for somebody to wait for a hurricane to strike NYC so they can short BRK. . . . . Although. . . . one never knows -g- Paul.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7999)	8/11/1999 4:13:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78821

Oops, my error re ANLY from my last post: dividend paid 8/13 to shareholders of record 7/30. Weird move in ANLY today...spike to 15 15/16, pushed back almost as quick to 14 1/2...whazzup wit dat?!

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7999)	8/12/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78821

Put MCK in my "professional" basket - i.e. if you have to be fully invested and have to buy large cap companies, this is a buy. Personally, I am not buying much of anything. So far my short positions are working out great despite a hit today. Amazon looks like a dying stock, and I have been in and out of it - shorting rallies and covering at 83. So far that strategy has worked perfectly, and the rallies are getting smaller and smaller. When this stock breaks that support level, look out below - next stop 50. The other two, The Globe.com and The Street.com have fallen 20-30% each since I first shorted, but I have been feeding them on the way down, so my cost basis has decreased. Significantly, TGLO has broken through all support levels and TSCM broke through its $19 IPO price. I'm feeling comfortable and just keep shorting more as they drop. Today was a pretty good rally though nothing like the rallies this sector has seen before. My other short, Citigroup, was more symbolic of a market call, though the valuation also looks pretty extended. I should have gone with my initial instinct to short Goldman, but Citi has still moved about 10% in my favor. Hopefully we didn't just see a bottom in the internet sector, or I'm in trouble because I've got a pretty big line cast at the moment. My first baby is going to be born tomorrow (planned delivery so we know). If the market crashes the day he is born, I told my wife his middle name is going to be Amazon. (No, not really) The market tanked in '97 when I was on vacation. Maybe history repeats itself - my two week vacation starts tomorrow. Not to make anybody nervous or anything...I would never do that! JJC