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To: Raybert who wrote (14071)	8/11/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 29970

The unwanted result is the instantaneous expectation and in trading that expectation is negative. The system multiplies or compounds that increment until the system is chaotic. The system operator must intervene and reinitialize the system. But on what basis? The basis is non-stationary. Indeed, it has an increment of negative expected return built into it, so on every adjustment error is introduced beyond that which is systematic and it accumulates geometrically. The result is a system like what people call "TA" is worse than random guessing. You will find the people who use these systems violate the system calls randomly. They override the system decisions based on their "gut" feel. They do this because the machine would take them to ruin so they have to disengage. Of course, this introduces another level of disorder and the negative expected return jumps to higher levels. You see this in day trading.