Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2020)	8/18/1999 9:42:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Evolutionary biology is a fascinating topic, Maurice. But I'm not sure it mixes with mobile telecommunications. Large installed base of customers feeds into more rapid technological development, thanks to higher investment by leading companies. I estimate that the "cross-over" point when second generation CDMA handsets start outselling GSM phones roughly coincides with the date your sheep grow wings and start flying to Auckland for weekend sherry benders. According to Alex Brown's latest wireless report, GSM is now expected to reach 60% global market share by around 2003 - at which time CDMA will be hard pressed to top even 20%. Add to that the TDMA share of around 10% and you see what's the real GSM/TDMA sales outlook four years into the future. Funny thing about the industry growth projections - haven't seen many people predicting that Voicestream would be the fastest-growing major operator in United States during the second quarter of 1999, have you? Yet that's the position it achieved by posting 180% subscriber growth. There was nobody predicting that England would hit 35% handset market penetration during 1999, either. Was there? Or that Turkey would reach 5 million GSM subs by this autumn? Or that Fujian would hit 2 million during this summer? There's a common feature to these shockers, Maurice. They are all examples of how GSM sales growth has been way above projections made by US investment banks for the entire decade - and how the misjudgements keep piling up even now. Next winter is shaping up to be another period of readjusting badly miscalculated growth estimates for Merrill Lynch and rest of the Manhattan funky bunch. Tero