To: daffodil who wrote (7933 ) 8/11/1999 8:44:00 PM From: Ken Respond to of 9818
<Foreign Failures Will Topple U.S. Dominoes Remember Hitler's mantra, "Today Germany...tomorrow the world!!" ?? the January embedded systems' 'variation on a theme" may well be "Today the world, tomorrow American!!!!!" REmember, oil is our true archille's heel! Without it, the grid goes down, and likely indefinately! No imported oil means no heat for little Sammy, and no food for you! Plan for very little or no more imported oil in 5 months. Think about Sammy! <<< mercurycenter.com This is a good article. It's brief. It will not be read. It will not be believed. The stock market will ignore it. But when, in six months, chaos arrives and the stock market has collapsed, people will wonder how such obvious facts as this article presents could have been ignored by the hot-shots who run the mutual funds. Foreign suppliers will fail. This will topple U.S. manufacturers, who will not secure replacements in time to avoid a debacle. This is obvious, but it has no effect on the mass of investors. The wish is father of the portfolio. This is from the SAN JOSE MERCULRY (Aug. 9). * * * * * * * * * * * * * . . . A survey announced by the World Bank at the beginning of the year monitoring Y2K preparedness in 139 developing countries found only 54 countries had initiated national Y2K policies, and just 21 reported concrete remedial steps to combat the millennium bug. ''This is a global problem affecting not only industrial countries which are highly dependent on computers but developing countries as well,'' warned James Bond, the World Bank official in charge of the institution's Y2K compliance program. . . . The alarming tone taken by the World Bank and others is at odds with the tech industry's reliance on Asian suppliers. ''We have a very high degree of confidence that we won't have problems in our Asian plants,'' said Scott Allen, spokesman for chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. in Sunnyvale. The reality is ''somewhere very in between,'' said Durga Ravipati, a senior engineer with IBM in San Jose who until recently spent three months a year reviewing manufacturing suppliers throughout East Asia. ''While it may end up not as scary as some people think, it's certainly not going to be trouble-free either. There might very well be some big problems.'' Indeed, Sun Microsystems Inc. CEO Scott McNealy, speaking recently at an industry conference, acknowledged that his Asian suppliers present the weak link in his Y2K-purged manufacturing supply chain. . . . Because of the inter-connectedness of high-tech manufacturing in Asia, a Y2K bug-related closure of a single facility could disrupt the supply of crucial components to the regional manufacturing base and have serious repercussions for Silicon valley companies, said Ramsey, adding that the problem could hinder production and delivery in the first quarter of the year 2000. Intel Corp. has identified Malaysia, for example, as the Asian country it thinks is in most peril of Y2K shutdowns. Although Intel is by all accounts in very good shape itself in terms of internal Y2K compliance and has safeguarded its main suppliers and distribution channels, the company is still exposed to risk overseas. Intel has put into place contingency plans, such as installing backup generators, and identified back-up suppliers at its Malaysia facilities in the event of post-New Year's Day trouble. . . . At this macro level, even companies trumpeting their oversight of major suppliers may be debilitated by infrastructure issues. Hotle points to customs clearance procedures, which tend to be computerized in even the least advanced markets, as especially vulnerable to Y2K glitches. . . . ''There's no way to judge if someone is compliant or not,'' Ravipati said. ''They may have to go through some sort of demonstration from certification companies, but the standards are different. When you look at companies in first tier countries, they follow the same rules as we do. But companies in second tier countries really don't.'' :