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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (138923)	8/11/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<<the correction is over. the bottom was yesterday just before the gtreasury auction. the beige book today says no price inflation. We are good to go for 60 days.>> jhg: I tend to agree....now if you could get your good friend Ed Yardeni to quiet down about Y2K recession possibilities, then we could have a real nice run <G>. I plan to stay quite fully invested right on into the new millenium. It sure is a blessing that I have held onto to a lot of my DELL stock. I have a hunch that we could really start to run again...A great quarter is just around the corner..!! Best Regards, Scott

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (138923)	8/11/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Mick Mørmøny	Respond to of 176387

Hold it you guys. There might be rain on your parade. Heat's on -- so's the rate hike With stats like these, how can they not tighten up? NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- If you're hoping that the upcoming inflation numbers will be benign enough to dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates later this month, well, forget about it. This summer's Midwest heat and Northeast drought (along with production cutbacks by the oil-producing countries) have combined to boost food and energy prices on the farm and at the well head. Even now, you're probably already paying higher prices in food stores and at gasoline stations around the country. Naturally, these higher tags will also show up in the two major gauges of inflation, due to be released over the next few days. The producer price report for July will be out on (shudder) Friday, the 13th. This could be an unlucky day for the financial markets, since a jump of 0.3 percent following June's decline is expected, according to the CBS.MarketWatch.com survey. Next week, the consumer price index for July will be released, and if the consensus is right, look for it to squirt up by 0.3 percent, after remaining unchanged in both May and June. To be sure, both indexes are expected to post more moderate gains of around 0.1 percent when food and energy are subtracted. But this is cold comfort for Fed watchers. We all consume food and energy, and their higher prices could well become imbued into our collective psyches when it comes to expecting -- not to say tolerating -- inflation. More important than one month's inflation figures, a revival of inflation psychology, especially in today's tight labor markets, is something the Fed must nip in the bud. And while we are now past the midpoint of summer, thus can look forward to the onset of cooler weather in the next few weeks, the damage clearly has been done, when it comes to crops. The Northeast drought has slashed the supply of vegetables available for canning, while milk production is being held back by the lack of green pastures for the dairy cows to graze on. And in the Midwest, triple-digit temperatures caused considerable damage to such crops as corn and soybeans, sending their prices soaring on the commodities exchanges. See Futures Movers. The summer's heat also goosed July's industrial-production figures, as people cranked up their air conditioners, sending utility output soaring. Coming on top of the production cutbacks by the oil producers, this sent the price of West Texas intermediate crude oil to $21.28 a barrel on Monday -- a 12-month high and 63 percent above year-ago levels. With statistics like these, how can the Fed not hike rates? Dr. Irwin Kellner, chief economist of CBS MarketWatch, is Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University. cbs.marketwatch.com