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Strategies & Market Trends : AMIGOS INVITATIONAL YEEHAW PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (984)	8/12/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1316

DD, Okay, CHK at the open it is. Ken

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (984)	8/14/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1316

DD, Everything that I'm reading is pointing up for future oil prices with the exception of the possibility of China devaluating their currency. The following article in the Wall Street Journal creates a very bullish picture for oil stocks: August 12, 1999 Pipeline Fire, Inventory Data Lift Crude Futures Near $22 By MATTHEW F. GALLAGHER Dow Jones Newswires Fire on a U.S. crude pipeline and supportive petroleum inventory data pushed nearby New York Mercantile Exchange crude-oil futures near $22 for the first time since October 1997 in Wednesday's trading. The speculation behind crude's dramatic rise since February has been consistent: A large reduction in exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the usual dramatic rise in world oil demand in the second half of the year should reduce the world-wide oil glut and raise prices. U.S. inventory data and surveys on the world supply/demand balance over the past several months have confirmed this sentiment, and data this week gave traders no reason to second guess themselves. Tuesday, an inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute showed declines in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stocks, which include heating oil, in the week ended Aug. 6. Crude stocks fell 3.161 million barrels to 323.073 million barrels, nearly 22 million barrels below year-earlier inventories. Gasoline stocks in the report fell 3.476 million barrels to 206.627 million barrels amid strong demand of around 8.9 million barrels a day. Distillate stocks fell by an unexpected 647,000 barrels to 139.05 million barrels. Department of Energy inventory data Wednesday morning mirrored the API stock changes. September crude oil rose, in large part on the figures, to $21.79 a barrel, a 52-cent gain and the highest point for front-month oil futures since October 1997. The contract eased a bit in late trading to settle at $21.52. Crude-oil futures have more than doubled since hitting a 12-year low of $10.35 in late December. The API and DOE data came just one day after the International Energy Agency published its widely watched monthly report, which showed OPEC 91% compliant in July with agreements to cut exports by more than four million barrels a day from a February 1998 production baseline. The report also estimated that world oil demand in 2000 will rise 1.8 million barrels a day above 1999 demand, feeding into the notion that oil stocks are likely to drop further in the months ahead, a trader said. In addition to the consistent bullish picture painted by three different sets of data, the market got a boost from news that 210,000 barrels a day of oil flow was halted Tuesday on a Chevron Corp. pipeline. A Chevron spokesman said a fire at a Wortham, Texas, terminal caused the problem. Some traders also saw bullish potential for crude in wider refining margins in the U.S., which could translate into higher crude consumption as refiners boost production, and a narrowing of the premium Nymex crude holds over Brent crude, which could mean less opportunity to import at economic levels crude from Europe's North Sea, a large source of U.S. imports. "Nymex crude is a relative bargain compared to Brent and refined products," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Pegasus Econometric Group, a New York-based market research firm. But some caution has been noted in the market. With every new high crude sets, the less fresh buyers are out there to keep market momentum going, and the more bears strengthen their case that the market is overbought. "You have had a lot of news this week, and you would think we would be higher. The fact that we're not is an indication that this rally is running out of steam," said Mike Fitzpatrick, a trader at Fimat USA Inc.