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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (9093)	8/12/1999 3:28:00 AM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 9980

A Chinese Export Surprise Strong Rise in July Eases Devaluation Pressure Reuters BEIJING - China's exports posted their strongest rise in more than a year last month, spurring economic growth and easing pressure for a devaluation of the yuan, economists said Wednesday. The official China Economic Times said exports rose 7.5 percent in July from a year earlier, to $17.34 billion, while imports jumped 16.7 percent, to $13.92 billion, producing a trade surplus of $3.42 billion It was only the second monthly rise in exports this year - the other was a 4.2 percent rise year-on-year in May - and it followed a 1.3 percent drop in June. ''The July export figure is better than people had expected,'' said Li Jian of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated with the Foreign Trade Ministry. It pointed to a recovery after more than a year of declining sales to crisis-hit Asian countries, he said. ''Recovering Asian economies are having a positive impact on China's overseas sales,'' he said, adding that exports in the second half were expected to outperform those in the first. Exports fell 4.6 percent in the first six months of this year compared with the first half of 1998, and the July number, the steepest rise since April 1998, eased concerns about a continuing slump. An analyst at China Zhonghui Foreign Exchange Consulting Co. said the trade figures would help support China's currency, which has been the subject of speculation about a possible devaluation. A devaluation would spur exports by making them less expensive but could cause disruptions in financial markets. ''Rising exports in July are definitely good news for the yuan,'' said the analyst, who asked not to be identified. ''And the yuan is still cushioned by foreign-exchange reserves,'' he added. China had $147.05 billion in reserves at the end of June, giving Beijing a big war chest with which todefend its currency by buying it in exchange markets. The yuan is unlikely to be devalued unless Beijing, which has said there would be no reason to do so as long as China had a trade surplus, saw clear economic benefits, the analyst said. The China Economic Times quoted Foreign Trade Ministry figures as showing China had a trade surplus of $11.3 billion in the first seven months of this year, down from $26.71 billion in the same period last year It said China's exports fell 2.8 percent year-on-year to $100.2 billion in the first seven months, while imports grew 16.6 percent to $88.9 billion