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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moat who wrote (3597)	8/12/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5390

3G in Europe Moat, Europe's GSM network will be overlaid with either cdma2000 or W-CDMA or whatever versions are offered. All 3G is essentially the same thing, but with a few little twists and bells and whistles to differentiate one from the other to try to get marketing leverage or perhaps for legitimate technical aims. The mix of voice and data is tricky and requires technical differences depending on judgement about ratios, as one example. All 3G is CDMA. CDMA will be the air interface for all. GSM will be the switching in Europe. Yes, it is a given that there will be 3G. Sales will be vast. Nobody will want to miss the boat. I don't know how the technology trajectory will go to 3G. For example, look back a few posts and you'll see GPRS [General Packet Radio Services] discussed and now under trial. Qualcomm is battling through HDR [High Data Rate] to cdma2000 and seems to have a head start thanks to huge development on CDMA so far. Others are having trouble catching up, so cdma2000 might become the defacto standard just on the basis of being ready to roll. People can't wait for W-CDMA to come trundling down the line - see NTT woes for example. The Ericy purchase of Qualcomm's infrastructure division was pretty straightforward really. Qualcomm couldn't make it work in the face of highly successful Lucent, Motorola and other infrastructure suppliers who simply did a better job. They were losing money. Ericy had no access to any CDMA technology for terrestrial systems [their Orbitel division was including CDMA in Globalstar handsets]. Without CDMA licences, Ericy was likely to go down the gurgler because the world was going to CDMA. So, Ericy bought the infrastructure division and licences to sell CDMA in handsets and infrastructure. They should succeed in infrastructure where Qualcomm failed because of their marketing presence worldwide, operations people, existing customer base and all the rest which Qualcomm didn't have. The possibilities are endless. Really, as close to endless as I can imagine. This is about communication and that is almost a definition of what humans are! Humans are communication. Creative communicators. The timeframe is more tricky, but we are talking either 2 years or at most 4 for full blown 3G to be on the rampage. The graphs at Phone.com show a much more gradual gain in CDMA than I expect and their 3G graph is teeny and starting years out. Data has been a long, long time coming and I think a lot of people just expect that long, long time to continue, not realizing that the earth has moved. Maurice