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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (22803)8/12/1999 5:32:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Lee,

Please keep in mind that when I mention a short-term top, that does not mean that the market will rally nicely to that point and make a clear peak. As you know I work more on the basis of time than price movement.

If the short-term top does occur around AUG 20 and the strong selling resumes therafter, this top may not even look like a top in terms of price movement. As previously indicated, Im more inclined towards ZIG-ZAGGING with a slight upward bias in the SPX range of 1275- 1320, and a slighter chance for a one day/intraday 1340 spurt.

Keep in mind that such was based on my cycle analysis, which is different from my short-term technicals.

Surprisingly, my short-term technicals are now all in the mid-range to overbought. The DOW and the NDX just entered the overbought region already and if the market was to move up 1-3 more days in a row I would be getting CLASS SELL signals. However this does not fall
in line with the short-term top near/after AUG 20. Now either the AUG 20 top is wrong or we could ZIG-ZAG for about another week which would slow down my short-term technicals from getting to a CLASS SELL status too quickly. Another possibility is that I get a CLASS SELL signal in 1-3 days and it dips slightly and moves up again to form a mini double-top closer to the AUG 20 time frame.

Hope I made some sense.

seeya



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (22803)8/12/1999 8:30:00 AM
From: HairBall  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Lee: There was one call on this thread that pin pointed the beginning of the rally within less than a ten minute window.

Regards,
LG



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (22803)8/12/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Good morning Lee

triggers ..

OK lets take a slightly different route to get there.

Camp has prem triggers at 746 and 308. So then the sell programs kick in at 438 lower than the buy programs (746-308).

SPX.X closed at 1301.93. 1301.93+746 = 1309.39.
1309.39 - 4.38 = 1305.31 sell trigger.

If my buy point was correct (579) then the sell point would be 141 (579-438).

Gersh