To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (56172 ) 8/25/1999 8:35:00 AM From: John Pitera Respond to of 86076
Japanese bond demand hits 12-year low due to Y2K Concerns From the Financial times. By Gillian Tett and Naoko Nakamae in Tokyo The volume of bids for Japanese government bonds yesterday fell to their lowest level for at least 12 years amid signs that Japan has become the first global debt market to be infected by "millennium bug" concerns. A regular monthly auction of JGBs attracted only 1.41 bids for every bond offered, sharply down from 1.91 a month ago, and the lowest rate recorded since the 1980s. Investors' lack of enthusiasm partly reflects the recent improvement in the Japanese economy, and the rising budget deficit. However, it is also the result of concerns about the liquidity of Japanese bond markets in the run-up to December 31. Investors fear that the main institutions which hold JGBs, such as life assurance companies, Japanese banks and public institutions, will refuse to lend bonds for trading purposes over the year-end period because of the risk that customers' computers will fail. One senior foreign banker said yesterday: "What we are seeing in Japan is the first time that a bond market has been affected by millennium problems - it is potentially very serious." Prices in the futures market - or the price of JGB contracts settled in the future - have collapsed this month because of millennium bug concerns. Because JGB traders rely on being able to buy futures contracts to hedge their current cash purchases of JGB issues, some foreign investors were reluctant to buy bonds at yesterday's auction. William Campbell, head of fixed-income research at JP Morgan, said: "Without a hedging tool, it is unsurprising that demand at the government auctions falls off." Some US banks are now appealing to the Japanese authorities to restore liquidity by encouraging public and private institutions to continue lending bonds over the year-end period. The Japanese government insists that it is taking necessary precautions to avert any millennium bug problems. The Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance have so far refused to make any statement, partly because they hope that the distortion is simply a temporary phenomenon. The problem of the millennium bug has arisen in Japan earlier than in other capital markets, partly because the Tokyo Stock Exchange announced earlier this year that it planned to implement a technical reform of the futures markets from next March. As a result, traders are reluctant to use the September and December contracts. When the first March contract became available in the markets this month, many investors rushed to buy this instead. The fact that investors already hold a contract that will be settled in 2000 has brought forward concerns about liquidity. ft.com