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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth R Miller who wrote (3494)	8/12/1999 3:42:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10027

Kenneth, funny thing... Just before you posted, I was just thinking that all we need now is CNBC and the talking heads to give the everyone green light to buy (in the markets in general) and we'll have a rally. Seems the markets wait for the pundits to give the official go-ahead. I don't subscribe too much to conspiracy theories, so I don't think the swings in the market (and in NITE) are the result of a massive coordinated effort. Rather, human nature leans towards "groupthink" - if some bad news comes out, people look for more bad news and soon everybody's talking. It is truly phenomenal how the spin machine can guide the mindless masses. Now it's OK to buy. Now, SCH says the July over June trade stats were up by 19%, contradicting FBCO's Bill Burn'em's report! We may see a secondary pop tomorrow in the OLB/MM sector as the talking heads continue to backpedal about the OLB sector! This worry about Greenspan and raising rates is especially overblown. The long bond has already factored in a 25 basis point increase, so it has done Greenspan's work for him (although if they don't increase rates on Aug 24th, the long bond will probably "undo" the work and lower long term rates. The problem is the spinmeisters don't focus on REAL INTEREST RATES! Consider the fact that we've had two consecutive months of a CPI of ZERO. So, with rather quiescent inflation, "real interest rates" (inflation-adjusted) are still quite benign for the corporate environment. Therefore, even if we have a 50 basis point increase over the next two FOMC's, low inflation rates effectively cancel such a rate increase.