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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pallisard who wrote (13660)	8/12/1999 4:09:00 PM
From: John Curtis	Respond to of 27311

Pallisard: LOL!! Yah, I know how you feel about that numbers game. So much smoke, mirrors and blue sky. BUT, and this is nothing against the endless projections other threadsters have bantied about, this time we've at least got management on public record with a dollar figure. Sooooo.....hmmmm...I haven't done any calculations yet....but I'll settle for a $15 figure...this ain't a bad place to start....particularly when you then bang that potential up against....what was that number again.....$250 Million? Yup, not a bad start at all. I'll take it! But first....before eggs, much less chickens, start getting counted, need I say this.......? About those..... ;-) Regards! John~

To: Pallisard who wrote (13660)	8/12/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: DKR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

$76/12 is $6.3 million per month in capacity, and he did not say they were ready for that type of production yet. Lev said that the Hanil contract should be worth $18 million over the next year (or $1.5 million/month). Therefore I expect initial revenues of about $1.5 per month ramping up (with purchase orders of course) to $6.3/month at year end. That is an average of about $3.9/month or $46 million/yr. ( I don't imagine that the Alliant contract is significant at this point.) I am guesstimating that cash burn rate of at least $3million/month, leaving about $10,000,000 to split amongst the 28 million share float or about .357 per share, a pe of 30 (would be justifiable because of the growth prospects--i.e. 250 million capacity down the road)for a stock price of $11. Some external price pressures, short covering, analyst coverage, positive press,licensing agreements, jv income, etc would push the price much higher....who knows, just a conservative guess...(I am not comfortable with taking a stab at raw materials costs, if anyone can offer an educated opinion I would appreciate it.)