To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (22879 ) 8/12/1999 5:11:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
CJ, the much-lauded monetary policy pursued by the Fed in recent years will likely be condemned at some point in the future, just as the 1920's Fed's policies were condemned by subsequent generations. i recently read a paper AG himself wrote in '66, where he argues against abandoning the gold standard and briefly touches upon the mistakes made by the Fed in the '20's. reading this, i am really starting to wonder how he could allow asset price inflation to get so out of hand in the '90's. the mistake made in the '20's was that against a backdrop of rising productivity, disinflation and technological advances(sound familiar?) the Fed left interest rates too low, flooding the system with money, which created a bubble economy and an asset price bubble. money that didn't find it's way into stocks found it's way into industrial capacity which ended up as overcapacity. now apparently Greenspan knows this, as he mentions all those points in his '66 paper. my conclusion is that he is well aware of the need for tighter money, but that his hands are tied by the politicos who tend to look no farther than the next election day. there are also indications that some of his fellow Fed board members have slowly come to accept various 'new era' theories that are floating about. schooled in the 1970's concepts of Philip curves and NAIRU, they have witnessed these concepts failing in the 1990's and thus have partially come to believe the new paradigm crap spewed by the likes of Larry Kudlow. of course there is no new era - it has all been experienced already in this century, namely in the 1920's and in Japan in the 1980's. the economic and monetary backdrop that allowed the excesses of these eras to come into being was EXACTLY the same that we experience now. one would think that the lessons of the past have been learned, instead we seem doomed to repeat it... regards, hb