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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (22879)8/12/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
>>Ah, a good argument for tech<< Yeah and the financial center of the world doesn't even have a back up power source. LOL

Those puts I planned on buying on the bounce would have been a nice reward for my day off right now.

These extremely short lived bounces are getting too frequent during this decline. When the real bottom comes, no one will trust it since every rally has been met with more selling so far.

Oh well. Guess I will take a nap and count my woulda shoulda couldas in my sleep. <g>

I haven't been paying attention to AOL lately. All I know is DELL, SUNW and a few others I follow close for friends are unable to break above my resistance lines and until the generals can break out, this market is going to have a tough go of it. Tomorrow's PPI should be enlightening and Tuesday's should seal the fate of the market until the 24th. I was actually hoping this bounce would go further but such is life I guess.

Good Luck,

Lee



To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (22879)8/12/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
CJ, the much-lauded monetary policy pursued by the Fed in recent years will likely be condemned at some point in the future, just as the 1920's Fed's policies were condemned by subsequent generations. i recently read a paper AG himself wrote in '66, where he argues against abandoning the gold standard and briefly touches upon the mistakes made by the Fed in the '20's. reading this, i am really starting to wonder how he could allow asset price inflation to get so out of hand in the '90's. the mistake made in the '20's was that against a backdrop of rising productivity, disinflation and technological advances(sound familiar?) the Fed left interest rates too low, flooding the system with money, which created a bubble economy and an asset price bubble. money that didn't find it's way into stocks found it's way into industrial capacity which ended up as overcapacity. now apparently Greenspan knows this, as he mentions all those points in his '66 paper. my conclusion is that he is well aware of the need for tighter money, but that his hands are tied by the politicos who tend to look no farther than the next election day.
there are also indications that some of his fellow Fed board members have slowly come to accept various 'new era' theories that are floating about. schooled in the 1970's concepts of Philip curves and NAIRU, they have witnessed these concepts failing in the 1990's and thus have partially come to believe the new paradigm crap spewed by the likes of Larry Kudlow. of course there is no new era - it has all been experienced already in this century, namely in the 1920's and in Japan in the 1980's. the economic and monetary backdrop that allowed the excesses of these eras to come into being was EXACTLY the same that we experience now.
one would think that the lessons of the past have been learned, instead we seem doomed to repeat it...

regards,

hb