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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike 2.0 who wrote (8012)8/13/1999 1:10:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd  Respond to of 78825
 
Mike MOO: HRP Regarding how the SNH spinoff shares will respond - I'm expecting some sell-off as holders of the office HRP that don't want the healthcare SNH sell the shares, but I expect the office shares to gain more than enough to offset that. The risk you identify is real, but the valuation disparity offsets it for me. I wish I knew better how to anticipate the the market's response, but the best I can do is bet on the value and hope the catalyst of the spin is enough to release it. In the meantime, I'm collecting over 10% yield while waiting for the market to come to see the value. The spin is evidence that HRP is scramblin to get real value recognized and presumably will continue to do so.
According to Merrill's Eric Hemel, the office pipeline has contracted quite a bit recently implying stability [overbuilding is key risk] and superior value for REIT market segment with 7% yield and 10% growth factor. He also sites lack of retail investor interest - which plays to your point that this may take awhile to play out - as one reason values are generally compelling. This is a much better value than that already undervalued office reit segment, IMO.
The healthcare portion, I may sell on the spin and buyback as selling is exhausted.