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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moat who wrote (3608)	8/12/1999 9:39:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 5390

Moat, you think only $10bn earnings a few years out? You obviously don't understand the opportunity <g>. Some company has to be the biggest on the planet. I can't see any reason for it to be any other than Q! I'm convinced European GSM operators will adopt 3G and CDMA because everyone will like WWeb applications and even deaf people will want one of these phones - they'll be able to read the messages. Everyone will want a phone. CDMA has the best and cheapest means of delivering voice and data to WWeb devices. Actually deaf people might not read the messages. They might get a direct ear nerve stimulation [even better than a cochlear implant] for real sound! But that's another story. I think the GSM operators will adopt it because they all say they will. So do all the GSM manufacturers even including Ericy, the last hold out. EVERYONE is now aiming at CDMA for 3G. Nobody is aiming at anything else [other than OFDM and things way further down the line]. There is no other game in town. They will run out of spectrum sooner rather than later. When 3G is available, either as cdma2000 or W-CDMA if they can ever make that committee specification something real. So far, they can't even get their committee multitudes to agree on the specifications of W-CDMA let alone make an ASIC to do something about it. On the other hand, cdma2000, the Qualcomm-backed technology is coming down the 'pike! They can't keep improving GSM because it can't carry the data fast enough and in enough quantity or cheap enough or good enough quality or anything. NOBODY is trying to make a GSM 3G interface. They are trying to maintain the ground GSM switcheroo systems and that should be successful. The electronics engineers of the world all agree that Fourier is the man and CDMA DSPs are the game. {Don't ask me for any equations because I haven't a clue!} Ericy was forced to look at CDMA because they finally realize that the damn things was actually going to work despite their expert engineers telling them it wouldn't. Serious people who understand these things were saying stuff like "CDMA in mobile breaches the laws of physics"!! Well, Ericy suddenly realized that it didn't! Now what?!! They'd been 'denying that request' to their customers who asked for CDMA. Actually, they said they would deny that request but when customers started asking for it, they realized they were in big trouble. So Ericy tried to litigate, claiming that they had invented CDMA. Which was a huge joke, but enough people took it seriously [remember OJ got off] that they wondered whether Ericy would get away with it, so it was only after the trial was aborted and Q! sold them the goods that Q! share price took off like mad as it dawned on people that Q! owned the crown jewels. So Ericy had to capitulate, get their cheque book out, and buy in. The standards setting bodies are a government-inspired joke. That applies to nearly all standards setting bodies. They are nearly all bureaucrats who like nothing more than a business-class plane trip to a jamboree, a first class hotel, lunch and a few discussions about where the next meeting should be held. They vote on stuff and goof around coming to some 'industry' agreement, which excludes companies and customers [you and me] who don't have market share or whatever daft rules they have. The European ETSI crowd tried to jack it up so that Europe would be a trade protected market for locals to enjoy. Japan has done that with weird rules for their local wireless. Qualcomm told them to get lost and they couldn't use Qualcomm technology unless they did what Qualcomm said. Since the Europeans were trying to bludge off Q! property, and the USA is big and tough and backed Q! the ETSI crowd had to capitulate. So did the Japs! So did the Koreans. It was Q! and the USA legal, military and political system versus the rest. Not surprisingly, Q! won. So the Europeans agreed to a 3G standard which enabled a single solution in CDMA though with some variations which could be handled in ASIC and software technology without a lot of cost. They called it multimode. That process of convergence is not over yet because there is no reason for some of the differences and they cost consumers in functionality in the ASIC and handset as well as $$. Lucent, as part of ATT was going gung-ho on CDMA. As was Nokia, all the Koreans with government insistence, Motorola, Nortel, several Japanese companies and I a few others. Heaps of handset makers signed up to make CDMA handsets. Q! is now at a level where people can't believe the rise, the P:E is not off the planet and they are waiting to see if the growth really does happen or whether they have missed something. There also was a horse called Bill Frezza, which died some time ago but gets flogged from time to time in an effort to get him to say that CDMA won't work, is late to market, Irwin Jacobs is a fraud, CDMA will collapse under load, the scam of CDMA is colossal and all have been blinded by the evil Q! He doesn't respond. The horse is dead. We should feed him to the hagfish - they are in disarray too. Maurice