BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS Keith E. Benjamin, CFA - mailto:keith@rsco.com ------------------------------------------------------------ Unsubscribe: internetstocks.com If you do not have access to a browser, please reply to mailto:internetstocks@rsco.com with the message "unsubscribe" in the subject box. Mailing List Changes: internetstocks.com ------------------------------------------------------------ August 13, 1999
The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #32
This week, the NETDEX index increased 0.7% to 465.93, compared to the NASDAQ, which decreased 0.6%.
HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY? - We expect a second-half rally driven primarily by consumers moving up to a considerably higher level of spending online across multiple retail categories with real money flowing across the Web. Short term, we wonder if this week's bounce was a head fake. Maybe we just want a quiet few weeks before we go back to school. We believe we should be less concerned with picking the bottom of the market, and begin to accumulate those stocks whose fundamentals appear to be improving.
Our challenge with picking and ranking stocks is a combination of sorting through too long a list and strategic debates over almost every stock. In the search to keep stock picking simple, we are finding ourselves leaning towards companies with or near profitability. While not a perfect rule, we suspect Yahoo! may be the least controversial stock and will rebound first. Lycos could surprise us next week by reporting a bit of profitability. While not directly profitable, CMGI provides another Internet proxy. Favored stocks mentioned below include AOL, Alloy, eBay, eToys, Gemstar, Mapquest, Modem Media, Network Solutions, Stamps.com, Student Advantage, and Security Dynamics.
EXPECT FREE ACCESS FAD WILL FADE - AOL has been at or around the top of our list for many years, despite continued questions on competition. This week, the threat is perceived as free access, as Alta Vista entered the game. Alta Vista is currently owned by Compaq but in the process of being acquired by CMGI. Under the new offer, Alta Vista customers will have a MicroPortal, or small customized Web window, open on their desktops at all times, allowing for highly targeted advertising opportunities. We continue to doubt that free access will hurt AOL. Lower prices have not attracted any noticeable number of members to switch habits, by our observation. While an interesting temporary marketing tool, we don't see advertising/commerce revenues alone as sufficient to sustain this model. We also believe quality of content, service, and access matter. Providing quality remains difficult as volumes increase with most Internet companies encountering scaling problems at one stage or another. Quality entails some access cost, even for dial-up access, which is becoming yesterday's battle. Tomorrow, consumers will be looking for speed, not price, in our view. Broadband access is too expensive for the foreseeable future to even be discounted. We believe AOL's stock will break through this noise over the next few months.
eBrokers - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby - mailto:scott@rsco.com
eBrokers make money when their accounts trade. Along with account growth, transaction growth is a critical indicator of an eBroker's financial prospects. As such, we are starting to track the trading volume of NETDEX, internetstocks.com's index of Internet companies. We hope to provide an indication for the eBrokers' prospects well in advance of each quarter's end.
Before we review this week's results, we thought we would talk about last quarter, as well as July, the first month in the third quarter, in order to put this week's results in perspective. The second quarter was marked by a slowdown in volume growth despite a record month in April of 4.91 billion shares of NETDEX stocks traded. In April, many of the Internet stocks hit their 52-week highs, including the eBrokers. May was down 24% sequentially to 3.74 billion and June was down 3.6% from May to 3.60 billion shares. However, volumes for the quarter increased 9.6% on the NETDEX. This decrease correlated well with transactions for the eBrokers by our calculations. We estimated that the industry's sequential growth in average online trades per day was up 10.6% to 555,400 trades/day from 502,200 trades/day in the first quarter. Not bad, but well short of 1Q's record 50% sequential growth.
July's volumes dipped even further at 21.2% below the average monthly volume for 2Q of 4.09 billion. This was consistent with a "bearish" market and the inherent cyclicality of trading during the summer months. Total volume for the month was 3.22 billion, only ahead of February, the worst month this year with 2.93 billion shares traded. We believe the market, already jittery over interest rates, extrapolated July figures bringing eBroker shares tumbling down.
Which brings us to this past week. In the interest of giving a full week's data, we are calculating our weeks from Wednesday to Tuesday. Therefore, our first week is August 4 through August 10. Volume for this week was strong, jumping 30.4% from 733.8 million shares traded last week to 957.0 million shares. We have not seen NETDEX weekly volume this high since early May! Given July's lackluster results, we are breathing a small sigh of relief. Although these results are encouraging, given that August is traditionally a vacation month, we are not prepared to draw any conclusions about 3Q just yet. We will feel better if next week's results show similar strength.
eStock Update - Keith Benjamin & Michael Graham
GEMSTAR'S NEW GUIDE WORKING - Gemstar reported June-quarter results this week, highlighting the strong acceptance of its new electronic program guide (EPG). The company added five new television brands that have started shipping with the EPG, including Sony, JVC, Zenith, and Magnavox. In addition, RCA, an existing licensee, has started including the EPG in lower-end models in addition to larger, feature-rich sets. We believe these developments point to the EPG being shipped in nearly every new television set within a year or so, giving us greater confidence in Gemstar's future success as an advertising platform as the EPG reaches more households. We believe our current estimate of a 5 million-unit installed base for the end of C2000 could be low by 50%. We expect more advertisers to participate. Gemstar signed a new pilot advertising deal with ABC, following the deal with NBC. While these agreements are currently small in terms of revenue, we expect them and others to get larger as programmers view the Guide Plus EPG as a competitive edge to attract viewers. This progress makes us less focused on cable-related litigation, as we believe there is considerable upside to our numbers with or without cooperation from TV Guide, General Instrument, and others. However, we continue to believe the chances are favorable that the GI arbitration and TV Guide litigation will be resolved within the next month or two in a manner favorable to Gemstar. We believe now is the time to own Gemstar, ahead of potential positive news.
STAMPS.COM APPROVED - Early this week, we heard big news from the U.S. Postal Service, which approved Stamps.com to sell postage online, ahead of our expectations. This announcement clears Stamps for a national launch. One hardware-based competitor, E-Stamp, was also approved, but we don't believe its model will prove effective against Stamps.com and its easier-to-use software model. Counter to some competitive confusion, we believe Stamps.com is now positioned as the clear leader in a market with relatively open-ended opportunity, by our analysis. Based on the degree of customer acceptance, we expect the company will enjoy a very attractive business model with a recurring revenue stream and inherently high margins, helping it grow into a substantial valuation.
STUDENT ADVANTAGE ADDING SCHOOLS - Student Advantage announced plans to launch 12 new Official Athletic Sites on its FANSonly Network. To review, network sites are owned and operated by Student Advantage, but serve as the respective universities' official athletic sites. Five new sites were launched this week, including sites for the University of Oklahoma, University of Illinois, University of Miami, Washington State University, and the Mountain West Conference. The other seven, which will be launched by mid-September, include sites for New Mexico State, Massachusetts, Princeton, U.C. Santa Barbara, Memphis, Toledo and Creighton. These sites grow the FANSonly Network total to over 60 partner sites. We expect to hear additional announcements before the big back-to-school season, including additional distribution and commerce deals.
MAPQUEST ADDING BUSINESS CUSTOMERS - We believe Mapquest has been quietly building leadership since its IPO, as the stock has suffered with the group. Last week, the company signed deals with Federal Express and Walgreens, followed this week by an expanded relationship with Yahoo!. Mapquest will provide Maps and driving directions for the Yahoo!Mobile service, which sends personalized Web data to Yahoo! users on pagers and cell phones, highlighting the almost open-ended upside to MaqQuest's opportunity to find new types of customers. We believe some of MapQuest's business customers are starting to prove just how scalable the company's model is as volume-based contracts begin driving incremental, high-margin revenue with increased mapping activity on customers' Web sites. We expect more good news regarding new customers and international developments as we pull out of summer, and believe the stock is a compelling Buy at current levels.
eTail Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan
This week the eTailDEX closed at 861.862, down 5.3% from 910.0 last week. The eTailDEX is down 52.3% from its 52-week high.
EBAY'S SITE OUTAGES COULD OVERSHADOW PROMISING NEW BUSINESS ROLLOUTS - eBay hosted an analyst meeting this week that provided us with a better sense of the company's current technology challenges as well as its product development plans for the next couple of quarters. eBay's IT management team (which has been beefed up with numerous recent key hires) detailed the technical challenges the eBay system requires. While eBay has made substantial progress in creating a scalable architecture that can more reliably handle global person-to-person auction demand, management indicated that the prospect of additional site outages remains a possibility for the next 3 to 6 months as eBay implements new backup systems and a more distributed database infrastructure. While we wish we could be more confident that there will be no further site disruptions (and subsequent negative publicity), we believe there could be a silver lining to eBay's cloud of woes. We believe the company remains the definitive leader in auction listings and community members. We note that despite recent problems, eBay's user base has remained quite loyal as shown by the large competitive lead still enjoyed by eBay. We believe the system that evolved from the recent outages will position eBay as the proven technology leader as well. Other auction eTailers could struggle to create a comparable system and achieve a critical mass of users and listings. On the product front, eBay plans to target automobiles, high-end products, and regional and international markets this fall. We are extremely impressed by these initiatives and expect they will broaden eBay's market reach and further entrench the company's leadership position. That said, we are concerned that the upside in the stock, even as these services are successfully rolled out, could be somewhat dampened by ongoing concerns regarding site stability. Given that the stock is trading 61% off recent highs, we still find eBay's current valuation an attractive entry point.
ETOYS EXTENDS REACH THROUGH EXPANDED AOL PARTNERSHIP - eToys extended its previous agreement with AOL that was set to expire in December for $18 million over the next three years. Given our belief that Shop@AOL could emerge as an eTailing monster in its own right after its impending launch, we view these extensive partnerships as a potential key traffic driver for eToys at a reasonable cost. Under the terms of the agreement, eToys is the premier retailer of children's products and gains anchor tenant status in all key categories of the Shop@AOL destination site as well as other AOL properties. eToys will also provide all children's products for AOL's planned holiday and birthday wish lists. Given BabyCenter's previously announced anchor tenancy for baby products, we believe eToys now commands roughly two-thirds of all featured-merchant placements for children's products on AOL. We continue to believe eToys is prepared to handle a significant seasonal surge in demand and is solidly positioned to entrench its leadership position in online children's sales.
ALLOY ONLINE LAUNCHES FIRST TEEN-ORIENTED AUCTION SERVICE - Alloy Online announced the launch of the first and only auction site focused on products that appeal specifically to the Gen Y customer segment. As the first-mover into the Gen Y auction space, we believe Alloy is solidly positioning its brand as the leading Gen Y eTailing community. In our opinion, Alloy's brand communicates hip teen fashion with a component of Web culture to the Gen Y consumer that is increasingly adopting the auction model in their everyday Internet transactions. We continue to believe Alloy has been overlooked by many investors and the company's current valuation represents a highly attractive entry point. We believe auctions are a strong complementary business to Alloy's existing model, which boasts some of eTailing's highest product margins. We further believe the company is well prepared to capture significant share of Gen Y's wallet share this holiday season and are encouraged by what we believe are positive early leads on the company's back-to-school business.
U.S. AUTOMAKERS ENTER THE ONLINE MIX - This week, General Motors announced the creation of a separate Internet business unit, called e-GM, to house all of its eBusiness efforts. The highlight of this effort is GM's "Web Car," scheduled to be released by the end of the year, which will feature voice-activated Internet access. The car will provide other services, as well, such as providing drivers with directions, tracking stolen cars, and contacting help when an air bag is deployed. While it may be a stretch to highlight this under an "eTailing" header, we nonetheless find the fact that the reach of the Internet will soon be inside our cars very intriguing. Much like catalog shopping found its own niche aboard airplanes to satisfy the specific needs of their passengers, we imagine that a similar Internet economy will soon be created to cater to the millions of people who cumulatively spend millions of hours in their cars each day.
INTERNET SALES TAXATION UPDATE - Back in our June 25 issue of the WWR, we highlighted the first meeting of the Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce, the committee charged with recommending a tax policy to Congress in April 2000. This week, in preparation for its next meeting in New York on September 14 and 15, the Commission narrowed its focus to five categories to be addressed. The main discussion topics will be the structure and complexities of state and local taxation; the relationship between online and offline stores with regards to fairness and competition; and the current tax code web and how it can be simplified to accommodate eCommerce. To a lesser degree, the topics of taxing access fees of Internet service providers and international Internet tax policy will also be discussed. Considering the no-nonsense tone of the Commission and the tight deadline it faces, we reiterate that we expect the Commission to recommend that online transactions remain tax-free. With Internet commerce still in its nascent stages, we strongly believe that it would be extremely short sighted to stifle its emergence with a burdensome and complicated tax code spanning local, state and Federal jurisdictions throughout the country. However, we note that we believe consumers are increasingly interested in shopping online and do not expect continued growth in online shopping will be significantly impeded by any shift in sales taxation policy.
eServices - Steven Birer - mailto:steven@rsco.com
Consolidation begins among the Internet Enablers. Chemists will tell us that the cost of the chemical components required to make a human run somewhere between $100 and $200. However, if you put the chemicals together just right, and you can teach them about networking infrastructure or electronic commerce, the cost rises dramatically. This was evidenced by two acquisitions in the Internet Enabler space this week, with Lucent's acquisition of International Network Services and Razorfish's acquisition of I-Cube. Lucent's acquisition of INS, for $3.7 billion, is expected to dramatically boost the company in its efforts to compete with Cisco in the data networking market. The stakes are high in this rapidly developing market, and Lucent paid approximately $2.4 million per billable employee to acquire INS' network design and maintenance talent. Razorfish, which has been overrun with demand for its digital change management services, acquired I-Cube for approximately $677 million. I-Cube, whose origins were in legacy applications development, has been rapidly moving into the eBusiness applications space. The company's 335 billable employees will provide additional bandwith for Razorfish, as well as deepen the company's technological, strategic and sales capabilities. Next to the INS acquisition, it appears that Razorfish got I-Cube at a bargain: it only paid $2 million per billable head. To put these numbers in perspective, based on the annualized revenues generated by each billable employee, INS sold for approximately 10.5 years of revenue per billable employee, while Razorfish went for about 9. We would note that most of the technologists acquired are probably not a lot older than this.
Resolution should help Network Solutions. We believe that a resolution is imminent in the ICANN/Network Solutions/Justice Department dispute. We expect that an agreement will soon be announced whereby NSOL will recognize ICANN's authority to govern Internet registrations. We also believe that the agreement will authorize Network Solutions to maintain the Internet registry for a period of up to 5 years. As the keeper of the registry, Network Solutions will be paid for all registrations on the Internet, regardless of the registrar. Currently NSOL receives $18.00 per year for registrations; this will likely be cut in half to start, and we expect that it will ratchet down to a number around $5.00 by the end of the contract. Even at $5.00 fee the annual revenue from the registry business could be in the realm of $500 million. At the registrar level, we believe that the agreement will call for a relaxing of Network Solutions 2-year minimum registration period for domain names. The minimum registration period will likely be a year, but we believe a market may be created for longer (up to 5 years or more) registration periods. This would play into Network Solutions market leading position. We believe that investors have been standing by, waiting for resolution to the dispute. Given the potential proximity of an agreement, we encourage investors to get off the sidelines and back into the stock.
Modem Media says "GE!". Modem Media Poppe Tyson (MMPT) announced a large service agreement with General Electric. Under the contract, GE will pay Modem at least $11 million through September 2000 for Internet and intranet planning and development services. Modem will provide these services to GE Corporate and its business units in North America, Asia, South America and Europe. Good things continue to happen to Modem Media since it announced its resignation from it AT&T relationship. Two weeks ago the company reported a fantastic quarter in which it reached profitability six quarters ahead of our expectations. The GE relationship plays right into Modem's sweet spot of building long-term, global relationships with large, Fortune 500 companies. We continue to believe that Modem is one of the most attractive opportunities in the Internet Enabler market, and maintain our Strong Buy on the stock.
Internet Enabling Technology Update - John Powers - mailto:JP@rsco.com
Looking for true value in realm of the Internet is a bit like the medieval search for the Grail. It's a noble quest but one that seems gloriously futile, even in this choppy market. This week in the NetworkStocks newsletter, John and his team look at that rarest of dreams, a true Internet value stock, Security Dynamics (SDTI). To get the full picture from our NetworkStocks gang, subscribe by writing to mailto:NetworkStocks@rsco.com or go to www.networkstocks.com and subscribe from there.
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Ticker Rating Price Price 8/12 8/5 1-Wk 52-Wk Chg Chg High 52Wk 8/5 High to to 8/12 8/12
ALOY BUY $9 4/9 $9 1/4 2% $23 1/6 -59.3% AMZN SBUY $91 3/4 $97 1/4 - 6% $221 1/4 -58.5% AOL SBUY $92 7/8 $83 3/4 11% $175 1/2 -47.1% ASKJ BUY $31 1/5 $30 4% $77 4/5 -59.9% AWEB BUY $10 1/4 $10 2% $50 -79.5% BYND BUY $17 $16 1/2 3% $41 1/3 -59.0% CBDR BUY $6 7/8 $6 1/4 10% $17 3/8 -60.4% CDNW MP $15 $15 7/8 - 6% $39 1/4 -61.8% CMGI NR $77 $80 - 4% $165 -53.4% CNET BUY $32 1/2 $35 7/8 - 9% $79 3/4 -59.2% DRIV BUY $21 $20 4/7 2% $61 3/8 -65.7% DCLK NR $79 1/3 $80 3/8 - 1% $176 -54.9% EBAY BUY $91 3/8 $92 7/8 - 2% $234 -61.0% EGGS LTA $7 $7 1/4 - 3% $40 1/4 -82.6% ETYS BUY $33 3/4 $33 1/8 2% $85 -60.3% ATHM NR $39 $44 7/8 -13% $99 -60.5% GMST SBUY $51 $58 1/8 -12% $77 1/2 -34.1% GETY BUY $18 $17 4/7 2% $30 1/2 -41.2% INSP BUY $40 4/5 $43 3/4 - 7% $72 5/8 -43.8% LCOS BUY $35 $35 1/3 - 1% $72 2/3 -51.8% MQST BUY $9 7/8 $9 1/3 6% $31 7/8 -69.0% MMXI BUY $35 $39 -10% $56 5/8 -38.1% MMPT BUY $23 1/2 $25 - 6% $55 1/8 -57.4% MLTX BUY $15 7/8 $17 5/8 -10% $72 1/6 -78.0% NETG NR $21 3/8 $21 2% $66 7/8 -68.0% NETP BUY $12 1/3 $11 4/9 8% $35 -64.8% NSOL BUY $54 7/8 $60 3/8 - 9% $153 3/4 -64.3% NEWZ MP $7 4/9 $7 1/5 3% $14 1/4 -47.8% ONSL LTA $13 3/8 $13 3/4 - 3% $108 -87.6% PCLN SBUY $67 1/3 $78 1/8 -14% $165 -59.2% PTVL BUY $17 1/8 $18 3/4 - 9% $36 -52.4% SEEK MP $29 4/7 $33 2/3 -12% $100 -70.4% SPLN BUY $19 4/7 $20 1/2 - 5% $59 1/4 -67.0% STMP BUY $31 3/8 $27 1/4 15% $52 1/2 -40.2% STRM BUY $36 1/2 $34 3/8 6% $70 -47.9% STAD BUY $11 1/8 $11 1/8 0% $15 1/4 -27.0% TMCS BUY $30 1/8 $28 1/4 7% $80 1/2 -62.6% SRCH BUY $7 3/4 $8 4/7 - 9% $17 3/8 -55.4% VUSA BUY $11 1/5 $11 3/4 - 5% $74 1/4 -84.9% XMCM BUY $34 3/4 $36 3/4 - 5% $98 1/2 -64.7% YHOO BUY $128 3/8 $128 3/8 0% $244 -47.4% UBET BUY $6 2/9 $6 3/4 - 8% $17 7/8 -65.2% NETDEX 465.93 462.74 0.7% 801.41 -41.9% KEBDEX 706.18 695.64 1.5% 1,273.17 -44.5% COMQ 2,549.54 2,565.81 -0.6% N/A N/A
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Source: AT Financial Information and BRS Estimates BancBoston Robertson Stephens maintains a market in the shares of Alloy Online, Amazon.com, Ask Jeeves, AutoWeb, Beyond.com,CareerBuilder, CDNow, Cisco, CMG, CNET, Digital River, DoubleClick, eBay, Egghead, eToys, E*Trade, Excite @Home, Fatbrain, Gemstar, Getty, GlobalSports, Infoseek, InfoSpace.com, INS Modem Media Poppe Tyson,Lycos, Multex,Mapquest.com, Media Metrix, NetGravity, Net Perceptions, Network Solutions, NewsEdge, ONSALE, Priceline.com, Preview Travel, Razorfish SportsLine USA, StarMedia, TicketMaster Online-CitySearch,Youbet.com, Value America, Xoom.com and Yahoo! and has been a managing or comanaging underwriter or has privately placed securities of Alloy Online, Ask Jeeves, AutoWeb, Beyond.com, CareerBuilder, Digital River, eBay, Egghead, eToys, E*Trade, Excite @Home, InfoSpace.com, INS, Modem Media Poppe Tyson, Multex, Mapquest.com, Media Metrix, NetGravity, Net Perceptions, Network Solutions, ONSALE, Priceline.com, Preview Travel,Razorfish, StarMedia, SportsLine, TicketMaster Online-CitySearch, Youbet.com, and Value America within the past three years.
* BancBoston Robertson Stephens is acting as advisor in the merger between Alta Vista and CMGI. In keeping with firm policy,our rating on CMGI goes to No Rating. ** BancBoston Robertson Stephens is acting as advisor in the merger between NetGravity and DoubleClick. In keeping with firm policy,our rating on DoubleClick goes to No Rating. *** BancBoston Robertson Stephens acted as an advisor in Excite@Home's acquisition of iMall; in keeping with firm policy, our rating on Excite@Home goes to No Rating
Rating Definitions: The following are basic definitions for our recommendation ratings.
Strong Buy - Rating for a stock, which we believe could have significant, positive price movement near-term and/or represents outstanding competitive and business model potential. Therefore, we would be aggressive buyers of the stock. Buy - Rating for a stock, which we recommend buying, however believe there may not be near-term news or events to move the stock price. Long-Term Attractive - Rating for a stock, which we believe could have long-term value, however we would not necessarily recommend buying. Market Performer - Rating for a stock, which we believe will perform at, or below, market levels.
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Unless otherwise noted, prices are as of the close August 12, 1999.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE CALL YOUR BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS REPRESENTATIVE AT (415) 781-9700. The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security. Although opinions and estimates expressed herein reflect the current judgment of BancBoston Robertson Stephens, the information upon which such opinions and estimates are based is not necessarily updated on a regular basis; when it is, the date of the change in estimate will be noted. In addition, opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This Report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from the results described in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, those discussed in "Investment Risks." BancBoston Robertson Stephens from time to time performs corporate finance or other services for some companies described herein and may occasionally possess material, nonpublic information regarding such companies. This information is not used in the preparation of the opinions and estimates herein. While the information contained in this Report and the opinions contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, BancBoston Robertson Stephens has not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this Report. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this Report. BancBoston Robertson Stephens, its managing directors, its affiliates, and/or its employees may have an interest in the securities of the issue(s) described and may make purchases or sales while this report is in circulation. BancBoston Robertson Stephens International Ltd. is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority in the United Kingdom. This publication is not meant for private customers.
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