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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gizelle otero who wrote (4861)	8/14/1999 2:43:00 AM
From: paulmcg0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Your estimates for EBAY are misleading. "4. eBAY earned 500% more in the last quarter than the one before." I think you are talking about the first quarter of this year vs. the last quarter of 1998 according to the research data (see financialweb.com ) . The number is actually 400% because the formula is 100% * (new value - old value) / (old value). In this case 5 cents a share vs. 1 cent per share in earnings or 100% * (0.05 - 0.01) / (0.01) = 400%. I noticed you didn't mention the quarter that ended in June, where eBay's earnings actually dropped to 3 cents a share. So, let's use the analysts' estimate of 11 cents a share total earnings for eBay in 1999, versus 1998 total earnings per share of 2 cents. Wow! ET phone home! eBay will make 11 cents a share in 1999, which makes the P/E ratio how much? Even if they doubled the analysts expectations, at its current stock price, annual earnings of 22 cents a share would be nothing to get excited about. Using our handy formula from above gives us a 450% increase in projected earnings for 1999 compared to 1998. This is certainly not the "best of all possible worlds" (an oblique reference to Voltaire) and I challenge you to name a company that has had 450% earnings increases for several years running. You are also completely ignoring the possibilities of competition, increased costs such as those for marketing or capital expenditures for hardware and software, and a saturated market (not everybody will be using eBay). Or, by some chance do you think that poor people, say in Bangladesh, will get PCs, go on the Internet, and increase the customer base of eBay?

To: gizelle otero who wrote (4861)	8/14/1999 8:01:00 PM
From: J. C. Dithers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

Speaking of "counts" -- Unusual activity for a weekend on this thread. Most likely reason -- worried shorts. Grasping for any straw, anything on the horizon that, if given the worst possible spin, could maybe, possibly, be bad for eBay (as well as all internets and all stocks). Scare propaganda. Giving up a weekend for it. There must be easier ways to make a living. But I hope they succeed, momentarily. Looking for a reversal to add more eBay. Kudos to Gizelle for the most intelligent posts seen on this board in quite a while (since the shorts found a new roosting place here). The truth is that the future never looked brighter for eBay. Auction counts up nicely, with holiday season yet to come. Technical problems are history. Ebay poised to announce new international initiatives. Net usage in Europe and Asia ready for take-off. Forrester research reports predict internet share of advertising expenditures will soon overtake magazines. Ebay perfectly positioned to offer advertisers a huge profiled (i.e., product preferences) advertising base for one-on-one targeted promotions. This is THE stock to own for 2000. Great time to be long. Worst possible time to be short. Good luck to all. er, most.