To: Scarecrow who wrote (12557 ) 8/13/1999 9:28:00 AM From: James Thompson Respond to of 19700
An upside outlook for the market from Keith Robertson's Web Report. A somewhat negative analysis of the future of free web access. August 13, 1999 The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #32 This week, the NETDEX index increased 0.7% to 465.93, compared to the NASDAQ, which decreased 0.6%. HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY? - We expect a second-half rally driven primarily by consumers moving up to a considerably higher level of spending online across multiple retail categories with real money flowing across the Web. Short term, we wonder if this week?s bounce was a head fake. Maybe we just want a quiet few weeks before we go back to school. We believe we should be less concerned with picking the bottom of the market, and begin to accumulate those stocks whose fundamentals appear to be improving. Our challenge with picking and ranking stocks is a combination of sorting through too long a list and strategic debates over almost every stock. In the search to keep stock picking simple, we are finding ourselves leaning towards companies with or near profitability. While not a perfect rule, we suspect Yahoo! may be the least controversial stock and will rebound first. Lycos could surprise us next week by reporting a bit of profitability. While not directly profitable, CMGI provides another Internet proxy. Favored stocks mentioned below include AOL, Alloy, eBay, eToys, Gemstar, Mapquest, Modem Media, Network Solutions, Stamps.com, Student Advantage, and Security Dynamics. EXPECT FREE ACCESS FAD WILL FADE - AOL has been at or around the top of our list for many years, despite continued questions on competition. This week, the threat is perceived as free access, as Alta Vista entered the game. Alta Vista is currently owned by Compaq but in the process of being acquired by CMGI. Under the new offer, Alta Vista customers will have a MicroPortal, or small customized Web window, open on their desktops at all times, allowing for highly targeted advertising opportunities. We continue to doubt that free access will hurt AOL. Lower prices have not attracted any noticeable number of members to switch habits, by our observation. While an interesting temporary marketing tool, we don?t see advertising/commerce revenues alone as sufficient to sustain this model. We also believe quality of content, service, and access matter. Providing quality remains difficult as volumes increase with most Internet companies encountering scaling problems at one stage or another. Quality entails some access cost, even for dial-up access, which is becoming yesterday?s battle. Tomorrow, consumers will be looking for speed, not price, in our view. Broadband access is too expensive for the foreseeable future to even be discounted. We believe AOL?s stock will break through this noise over the next few months. eBrokers - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby - mailto:scott@rsco.com