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To: Bob Kim who wrote (3525)8/13/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Can I ask you what you think of the [Merrill] research on NITE and the research in general?

Bob,

I've only recently moved to Merrill (for almost 2 months now), so my opinion of Merrill's research is still forming.

As regards NITE, I was told by my f.c. that the analyst on this stock was conservative, and indeed he underestimated earnings for 2Q99. Also, his recent DCF modeling of NITE, which allowed him to bring his price target down to 60, was very cautious. The high degree of caution is, interestingly enough, at odds with his analysis of ECN competition. That analysis quite convincingly establishes that the ECN threat is overblown.

As regards other stocks, at least those I've looked up, I've found Merrill's research to be very much to the point, generally conservative and (not unimportantly) always readily understandable.

I rely most on the earnings estimates (particularly looking for increases in those estimates) and on the core information within the analysis. I tend to discount the price targets. Recently, I was convinced by Merrill's analysis to buy Guidant (GDT) at 50, and in fact that stock has performed well, even during the recent market pullback. All in all, I very much like the research reports.

Hope this answers your question,
Best,
Gary Korn



To: Bob Kim who wrote (3525)8/14/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: JZGalt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Bob,

I'm a Merrill client for 20 years and have used their online research since it's availability about 2 years ago. I have to say that the research is conservative. In saying that, you will be unlikely to get a "pounding the table call" on valuation as was issued by BBRS in early August. Merrill's phrasing was "Inexpensive but not riskless" in their August 3rd report. The amazing thing about that report is they talked mainly about how good or flawed the current DCF model is depending on their assumptions.

Under our baseline assumptions, we see NITE valued at around $60 based on our DCF model over the next 12-18 months. However, it seems that not all the risk has been reflected at current levels, as we could see further downside risk of 20% under our stress test conditions;(35% if we were also to cut our assumed 5 year earnings forecast from 25% to 20%).

Frankly, I don't follow ML for most very high growth stocks which are relatively recent IPO's because they typically don't cover them unless they were in on the offering. ML was part of the NITE IPO.

In any case Kraushaar (who is the main guy in their banking area) is backup on these reports and I have confidence in his judgement from reading many of his reports. Sean Chin (who is the author of the reports) is an unknown to me.



To: Bob Kim who wrote (3525)8/15/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: LemonHead  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10027
 
Hi Bob, I have done some extensive DD on NITE this weekend and I'm thinking about taking a position. I feel my DD is weak in the competitor arena. Based on the following statement from the ML report dated 05/27/99 can you or anyone else nail down the top three competitors and their related Market shares?

 NITE?s 18%+ market share is more than the next 2 top market makers combined.

Who are the next 2 top market makers? Are they anyway near being competitive with NITE? Are they listed also? TIA

Keith