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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (22998)	8/13/1999 4:15:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Joan, I haven't heard anybody mention anything like that, all i hear is that these are the must own stocks for the next 3-4 years. the reason the market sold off is the bulls ran out of money, the swift decline in the $ exacerbated it. As we were discussing in early mid July, the declining vix toward new 52 week lows indicated investors were fully invested with little worry. bb

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (22998)	8/13/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Joan, very few do. therefore they stay out of the U.S. market and are shifting assets into Japan and other Asian markets which are perceived as having recovery potential. however, their reasoning is based upon a fallacy, namely that balance sheets and sloppy accounting matter. they do not. this market does not care about fundamentals such as these, it's a mania, which is likely in the process of running towards a blow-off top that will silence the last critic and wipe out the last bear. only then will it be ready to wipe out the bulls as well. there is no doubt in my mind that it will ultimately go the way of all manias and immeasurably hurt the global economy when it finally plummets back to earth. already the bubble has created the biggest debt explosion in the history of mankind which in turn is starting to show up as malinvestment on a grand scale. there will be endless congressional investigations into the causes of this phenomenon once the piper has to be paid and the era of laissez-faire capitalism will likely suffer a large setback. but of course nobody knows when that will happen - it could very well carry on for quite some time yet or it could indeed begin to end next monday. as for U.S. growth fund managers, if what CNBC presents is any indication, most of them are either blissfully unaware of the accounting shenanigans of corporate America or they simply choose to ignore them. after all even the densest one among them must have realized by now that reason and logic are not useful for approaching this market. regards, hb