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To: Lucretius who wrote (139182)	8/13/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: jttmab	Respond to of 176387

LT, Thanks for the response LT. This hurts...but...I have to agree with you (ouch), ie., the market selling off has little to do with Greenspan. The bond market....I don't think I'd pin it on the bond market..There were some pretty good runups prior to the fall, a 20% gain on the NAZ in the month prior and churning from 1400 to 2874 (intraday high) since last October is one hell of a run. You won't find me trying to argue that there is "fair" value in the market today. So, let's call it, a substantial drop is certainly possible. But isn't the question when? IMHO, the market stopped it's fall at at around 2475, that gave a 14% correction off the high (I kinda like corrections in multiples of 7%). So we see a rally. You would no doubt say that it's temporary....maybe so. I know that I'll be 100% cash on Jan 1 (excluding short positions), how much before that isn't certain. I personally expect this little rally to go into Sept. So I'm short term trading and watching carefully. If we break 2650 to the upside, you could very well see 2850 again. The fed breaks until the end of the year and a labor day rally is possible. October gets dicey. But I expect to be in cash sometime in Sept as well. As you likely know, you're not the only short out there and there is a ton of cash on the sidelines. So evaluations aside, you could see short covering and a substantial influx of cash trying to get greedy before the 4th quarter. All I'm suggesting here is that odds for the next three weeks or so favor the bulls. The market does need something to kick it down. IMO what kicks the market down will be Y2K fears....there are some small signs, such as the T-Bill auctions but largely it's being ignored. The market is always right, we just try to be on the right side at the right time and make a couple of bucks on the side. By any chance are you shorting QQQ? Best Regards, Jim