Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (31926)	8/14/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian and ALL, re Needham prediction of orders [decreasing momentum]: if I simple-mindedly assume history will repeat, then SEMI [not necessarily AMAT] orders peak 13 months after they bottomed. Just count the bars in the graph. geocities.com Since in the present cycle we're 9 months from the order bottom, that would mean an order top would be reported by SEMI in November 1999. But Needham jumps the gun. AMAT price isn't supposed to reflect that order peak until about October. :) Gottfried

To: Ian@SI who wrote (31926)	8/14/1999 12:26:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian et. al., From what I hear (a trusted friend of a friend), HELX (cryogenic pumps) has very recently received increases in their forecasts from AMAT. HELX operates with a 2-3 day lead time ... so, they rely heavily on AMAT's forecasts. The word going around is that IPS is causing some problems on the HD Oxide Etch side of the house ... having some problems with damage ... leaving them exposed to TEL and LRCX (particularly the latter's new Exelan). This is not a big deal in the context of AMAT's overall order/revenue picture. They will get the problem resolved. As for the recent analyst quivers ... I think they are full of cuck. These idiots have never cared about multiples in the past ... by definition, they never buy these things when they are supposed to (when everyone hates them) ... this is all part of the ludicrous posturing that occurs on the sell side. Obviously, AMAT is not going to have 51% sequential revenue growth every quarter. Is the business looking rock solid for them six months out? No. Does it ever? No. Is the environment getting better. Yes. Will AMAT get its share of the business during the recovery? Yes. Is the recovery written in stone? No. Is $69 the right price to pay for this business? Depends. Is AMAT ridiculously overpriced? No. Is the short-term risk v. reward picture favorable? No on knows. Is it a great company for people with a time horizon longer than the time it takes to hear the next tick of the tape? Of course. I think we will have a great call on the 17th. They will stress CMP, CVD, and PVD ... areas where they are firing on all cylinders. They will be cautiously optimistic about the future (prudent) and they will reiterate their great position in the industry. Sorry for the drivel. --Duker