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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (27070)	8/14/1999 9:10:00 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: $12.00 in '01? Given that a rambus sale isn't too different from a rambus profit (rambus functions as a sort of tax on the memory industry, that's why they are so beloved by the memory industry - rambus cost of sales is effectively nil) you'll need about $450 million in pre tax sales to get your $12.00 per share. (If sales are this good, you'll trigger the covenants that issue the $10 stock options and result in some per share price dilution) If average license fee is 1.7%, you'll need $26.5 billion in rambus sales in 01 ( actually, due to the in-arrears accounting, from July of 2000 to August of 2001) is that the sales projection you're using? Isn't midyear 2000 when intel comes out with its updated chipsets that don't require rambus anymore? (they will work with rambus, or with SDRAM) Are you confident that you're going to get $26.5 billion in rambus sales in the fiscal year that begins less than 11 months from now? What are projected memory sales for all memory types for this year (DRAM, SDRAM, SRAM, DRDRAM combined)? Anybody recall offhand? Dan

To: unclewest who wrote (27070)	8/14/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

uncle, Again, my point is not that RMBS is DOA or a POS, it is that RDAM deployment and introduction is delayed. So, although all the execution successes that you mention could happen by July '00 (they need to due to lag in rev recognition), I just do not see the moon lining up with the stars so easily. Also, (to beat a dead horse just like you beat a dead horse <gg>) many of the EPS numbers and penetration rates were arrived at thinking INTC would not support PC133 SDRAM, what happens to the penetration rates if this change!? That is my point. So, like bp, I will not back up the truck until I get some of these nagging questions answered by INTC and the OEM's. Regards, MileHigh