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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (23048)	8/14/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: Daflye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<ot> This is a must read I wish I had thought of this. Oh well. heh heh heh wtfman.com Cheers, D

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (23048)	8/14/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

From IBD - June PPI Notched Just 0.2% Gain; But Report Hints Trouble Brewing Some inflation seen in the pipeline. But report changes nothing for the Fed's policy-makers Date: 8/16/99 Author: Claire Mencke investors.com . . . Some analysts are more alarmed at a shorter-term trend they see in producer prices. ''Core prices at the intermediate level have risen at a 4% annual rate over the past three months,'' said Vitner. ''That's the highest since June 1995.'' That current three-month average now is higher than it was when the Fed began its round of rate hikes in 1994 and 1995, he says. ''Inflation didn't take hold then because the Fed was doing its job,'' Vitner said. ''Now, too, they want to keep inflation in the pipeline, like they did then.'' It's not clear these price increases will ever show up at the finished goods level, Sheldon says. ''There's a lot of excess capacity, both globally and in the U.S.,'' he said. ''We're unlikely to see that much price pressure from manufacturing. It's more likely to come from consumer demand.'' Cheney agreed. ''In this world, goods inflation is not the problem,'' he said. ''Services and labor are.''

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (23048)	8/14/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 99985

Also from IBD - investors.com Japan Firms' Debts Rise Date: 8/16/99 July saw 1,332 corporate bankruptcies, down 22.1% from a year ago. But their total debt rose $11.74 billion, a 49.5% jump, the Teikoku Databank research center said. July's failures nearly surpassed this year's high of 1,360, set in May. One researcher warned that if the government doesn't provide more debt help to the corporate sector, bankruptcies will rise. Inflation Targets Debated The Bank of Japan decided to keep its zero interest rate, but some officials are open to a policy shift. Some want the central bank to set an inflation target to raise expectations of higher prices. It's hoped that will induce consumers to spend now and help prevent a deflationary spiral. German Retail Sales Up Real retail sales rose 3.8% year over year, way above the 2.5% consensus forecast. That provides more evidence of a rebound, analysts said. Meanwhile, a prominent member of Germany's ruling Social Democrats warned conflict over budget cuts between modernizers and hardliners could tear the party apart. Hardliners are peeved that Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's government is taking fiscal cues from British ''New'' Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair, and that it's committed to spending cuts despite mounting public protest. EMU Prices Up A Little Industrial producer prices in the 11 European Monetary Union countries rose only 0.1% in June vs. May, and were 1% below their June 1998 level, Eurostat said. Separately, Portugal's consumer price index was unchanged in July, the government said. That left inflation at the consumer level rising at an annual average rate of 2.8%, in line with forecasts and reflecting a general lack of inflationary pressures. Russians Rake In Cash Russia's cash-poor government collected $6.27 billion in taxes between January and July, nearly twice that of the same period of 1998. Improving tax collection has been a priority for the government, under heavy pressure from foreign lenders to boost income after last year's financial crisis. Taxes collected in the first seven months of the year made up 7.1% of gross domestic product, up from 5.8% a year earlier. S. Korea Suicides Double The number of South Koreans who committed suicide over financial problems last year doubled to 897, a police report on the matter said. Of the total, 595 killed themselves after their businesses failed, the police added. Yuan Concerns Diminish Fears in Asia of China devaluing its currency are waning now that the region's growth prospects are brighter, analysts said. If Beijing were to devalue the yuan, Asia would take a hit. But improved capital flows, structural reforms and stronger economic fundamentals would help the region rebound quickly, they noted. Bahamas Bourse On Way The offshore financial center expects to open its first stock exchange later this year. About 20 Bahamian companies listing about $3 billion of shares are expected to join, an official said. Foreign firms are expected in mid-2000. The Bahamas International Securities Exchange is intended to help the island nation grab a bigger share of the world's financial market. It hasn't done poorly recently: About 600 mutual funds with $90 billion in assets are registered in the Bahamas, up from 300 with $20 billion in assets in 1993, according to KPMG Bahamas. (C) Copyright 1999 Investors Business Daily, Inc. Metadat

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (23048)	8/15/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, i know of PEI's concerns re. Russia, Japan and China.i think they are overblown with the exception of China perhaps. the fiscal position of the Russian government has improved considerably with the rise in crude oil prices. economic data out of Japan continue to beat expectations and the rise in Japanese long bond yields has thrown a lifeline to the banking system, which can now profit from the spread between long and short rates. the CSFB investigation was supposed to result in massive capital flight from Japan. by all accounts the opposite is happening. the hedge fund rumors continue to circulate and represent a big wild card - the widening of credit spreads suggests that someone must have lost a lot of money - we'll see what comes of it. some stock market bulls are already arguing that the widening of the spreads will stay the Fed's hand, which in the market's perverse logic would be bullish for stocks. regards, hb