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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (38010)	8/14/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Jon re: Japanese economy>I think the declines in loans represents more of a systemic problem with the banks rather than a further worsening of the economic situation. Basically, there are still many unresolved problems with the banking system due to their inability to meet international minimum capital requirements. Therefore, it is difficult for them to lend money to anybody. This of course is a vicious circle and puts further pressure on biz starts since it is also difficult for companies to go the local equity markets for capital. Who knows how this situation will resolve itself, since the government there does not want more banks to fail (as they should), which would help clear up their problem. There remain many anecdotes of serious employment problems. A friend who speaks English and has an engineering degree is working for 800 yen (about $7) an hour. But I don't see how it could get much worse. The latest White Paper on Employment from the Ministry of Labor shows a weak but stabilizing employment situation, after years of sliding. And the Japanese have let American financial companies set up shop there. In addition to encouraging consumer investment in equities (as opposed to adding more cash to the Post Office Bank's $12 trillion (!) kitty--many people have six- or seven-figure Post Office Portfolios earning 1% after taxes--that's what the great Japanese savings rate does for you!), companies such as Merrill and Goldman Sachs are no doubt looking for ways to funnel Western investors' capital into promising ventures in Japan. It is sad how long the Japanese problems have persisted, but they have arguably the best educated work force on the planet, and I think they will "out" at some point. JMHO, Greg

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (38010)	8/14/1999 4:21:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Jon, the economy is Japan is great! Unemployment remains really low [compare it with Germany or most other places]. You can borrow money there really cheaply, so there are heaps of business opportunities, such as cdmaOne and cdma2000 which can be funded cheaply with borrowed money. They are buying cdmaOne phones flat out. The GNP per capita remains higher than nearly anywhere. Maybe Switzerland is ahead, Luxembourg and a few other small places. They are civilized like crazy in that you don't get robbed, shot, abused or attacked. Not so civilized in that there are 10,000 people per train going to work - here we have 10 people per golf course and not too much work [not the city courses but on the outskirts] though we don't have the good gadgets in buying range. They come here on snowboard tours, having a LOT of fun and the place does NOT give out any 'Please feed us poor Japanese' messages. The banking 'crisis' which has gone on for years so it isn't really a crisis, is comparable with the S&L which didn't really sink the USA. As pointed out, when your loans have gone sour, you have to cut back your lending to maintain security levels adequately. To encourage lending, the central banks have cut interest rates to joke levels and isn't it pleasantly surprising and an indication of Japan's underlying strength that the yen doesn't just collapse to 250 to the dollar with the low interest rates. When the Yen was 80 to the dollar and interest rates were low, I was trying to borrow a fortune in Yen, to convert to US$ to buy MSFT which had dropped quickly to I think it was $80 in 1995 [they've done a split or two since then]. Couldn't find the lender! A few months later I did, but by then things had switcherooed and I didn't pursue it. But other people can and do. Money is slippery as all get out, morphs into a bigger or smaller measuring stick in only a few days. It flows around like electrons in a CDMA DSP equalizing pressure, voltage or whatever you call economic opportunity. It flows fast - not really bandwidth limited, just opportunity-recognition limited. Enough pipelines for money flow between the USA/Japan/NZ/Euro-countries and don't forget China, that real 'bargains' don't get left on the table for long. If Japan is a bargain and just needs some dosh to get it ticking, the money will show up. Tough titty for the lenders who loaned on overvalued buildings in Shanghai which will now be sold cheaply. They just go out of business and the new owners move in. The employees of the failed banks get jobs at the successful banks, the building gets occupied by the new owners [probably the incoming successful USA bank armed with Alan Green$pan SuperDs] and they all head down to Shinjuku and Akihabara and buy half a dozen cdmaOne handsets each then go and scoff some yummy MakiSushi [sp?]. No worries! Crikey the economy in Japan is great! Mqurice PS: By the way, the Nikkei has roared up 25% from the lows - it's great!