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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (19743)	8/15/1999 9:04:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Respond to of 25814

Hold on there partner. One of us is clearly mistaken. Are you saying that there was no bet involved, and that you didn't present me with a list of six stocks that you said would outperform LSI? If not, I'm going to have to find the posts that pertained to this bet.

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (19743)	8/15/1999 9:33:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Dipy: It seems as if your memory is failing you big time. As the following posts demonstrate, a bet was clearly made. Message 8765269 I began by issuing the challenge: But Dipy, hindsight is precisely what you are selling. Here's the foresight. Take the six stocks that match your criterion, and I will bet you dinner at your favorite restaurant that as of April 7 in the year 2000, LSI will have outperformed everyone of them. As far as the airlines are concerned, the problem with them is that they have been regulated by the government over a long period of time, and that has hurt their long-term profitability. And government regulation is what big MO is about to face. Message 8765996 You responded: Sure! Even though I am at the other end of the country! How about some stocks from my own "real world" portfolio? MCD PEP DBD PLL WRE MO PBY Btw, I want to plough some money into the other stocks that I mentioned before, but am still waiting for Jim Jubak to issue a "sell" signal for them! <G> And just how are Dipy's picks doing in our little contest? Well let's take a look at the following chart: techstocks.com Ouch! That hurts. LSI is up approximately 53% from the time the bet was made, and Dipy's best pick to click is up 19%. Overall, your picks have an average return of 3.3%.And rememember, this bet was made during a period of outright euphoria on the LSI thread, at about the time it had already tripled from its lows of six months before. So, as of right now, it looks like you will be treating me to dinner at your favorite restaurant, which means that I'll be flying into Portland sometime next April. I am truly looking forward to this grand and glorious event.

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (19743)	8/15/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

All the stocks that I hold have been bought with at least a 10-year outlook, if not longer. I wouldn't worry if any of them stayed flat or even went down a bit over a year or two. Good point about the ten year outlook: Here's a chart for the last 100 months comparing your favorite stock MO (Phillip Morris) versus the company, whose long-term outlook you repeatedly question--LSI techstocks.com Looks to me that a stock like MO returned just an anemic 5% a year--the same 5% return that you were making fun of to Addi. LSI by contrast returned a spectacular 30% a year, which compounded produced a return of 900% over the last eight and one half years. Now that's investing. And what is your strategy? Disinvest in the company that has had superior returns and invest in the company that has inferior returns. That makes no sense at all. Moreover, as you (and everyone else) observe, LSI is in a cyclical business, but the point is that it is not in a cyclical business where one peak is equal to the next peak. To the contrary, the peaks are so much greater over time, and that is why LSI is such a superb investment for the long-term investor. Indeed, one must look at the performance of LSI over one full cycle and compare it to MO to see which is the superior performer. Yeah, I know the blather about MO's dividends. But dividends are the ultimate form of short-term capital gains, since they are taxable as income. I'm sorry, but I just don't see the sense of your strategy as a growth strategy.