To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (28205 ) 8/15/1999 12:25:00 AM From: AlienTech Respond to of 50167
The stock and bond markets' jubilant reaction is out of relief that inflation continues to remain at bay despite strong economic growth and low unemployment. Throughout the 1990s, inflation has steadily declined, allowing our economy to prosper in an era of relative price stability. Stable prices create an environment in which businesses feel confident in making investments in new technology and new employees. Stable prices also are a direct cause for low interest rates, which encourage spending by both businesses and consumers. The end result has been soaring profits for Corporate America and a higher standard of living for all Americans. And, it all goes back to stable prices. Alan Greenspan will tell you the same thing. The Fed Chairman has stated that stability in the general level of prices for goods and services is a necessary condition for maximum sustainable growth. Of late, Greenspan has been worried about potential imbalances from tight labor markets that could cause wage inflation and eventually inflation across all goods and services. The G Man has also voiced his concerns about the rapid increases in the stock market for the past several years, which has induced consumer spending from the so-called "wealth effect," which comes from seeing one's brokerage account balloon. Nevertheless, with all of the moving parts in our complex economy, Greenspan ultimately considers price stability to be the #1 goal for the Fed's monetary policy Actually, the PPI is not an especially good predictor of the CPI because the methodology in determining the two numbers is very different. While both numbers are used as a measure of prices, the PPI and CPI have distinctly different purposes. The PPI measures prices on the wholesale level, and thus only includes the producers' costs, which are limited to the inputs from which final goods are made. The PPI doesn't include such costs as sales taxes, which of course impact consumers and thus rightfully are included in the CPI. In addition, the PPI only includes the prices of goods, whereas the CPI includes the prices of both goods and services. Not surprisingly, then, the PPI tends to show a lower level of inflation than the CPI. Here's how the two numbers have stacked up over the past few years: Annual Price Increases (not including food and energy) PPI CPI 1995 2.6% 3.0% 1996 1.4% 2.7% 1997 0.3% 2.4% 1998 0.9% 2.3% 1999* 1.1% 1.8% *Year-to-datefnews.yahoo.com