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To: gpowell who wrote (14547)	8/15/1999 4:08:00 AM
From: KW Wingman	Respond to of 29970

Yes IMO growth rate will go exponential. <a cut from an ahhaha post: The MSOs aren't install constrained now by choice. They are constrained by the fact that the marginal cost to supply installers is prohibitively high.> Think again. This may be true now but not forever. This is also the reason why growth will go exponential (we are limited by lack of installers now but not so much in the future). If you think slightly positive you can see cable modem hardware, firmware and computers hardware,software improving to such a point where many subs could be self installed. We will have a larger number of better trained technicians with more experience. Bottom line is less and less time will be required to install a new sub, this will grow exponentially for a few years.

To: gpowell who wrote (14547)	8/15/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Jing, Run the numbers - growth rate will never go exponential. It could double though. You forgot that TJ mentioned that DOCSIS compatible modem installed in Dell/Compaq will soon be out in the 4th quarter. This will solve the installation problem and make exponential growth possible. Your 3.5 mill number comes from linearly extending the current situation indefinitely for another 3 years, which will obviously not be the reality. Basically you were saying that there would be no improvement on the cable modem technologies for 4 years.