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To: NickSE who wrote (56503)	8/15/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 86076

bonds will not rally. DeBeers is telling you where the yield is headed next... it also made a pullback in this area before melting up.... bonds should be shorted.... sharenet.co.za 207.69.66.114

To: NickSE who wrote (56503)	8/15/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: NickSE	Respond to of 86076

Y2K bug overshadows commodities trade vny.com LONDON, Aug. 15 (UPI) - Commodity markets are living in fear of global disruption resulting from millennium bug problems that experts say won't be resolved this year because of the high cost of replacing embedded microchips..... .....Concern over the Y2K problem confronting the global commodity scene emerged in a World Bank report this month. A cautiously worded commentary in the bank's Global Commodities Report warned, "Regardless of whether the disruptions to occur are large or small, the anticipation of Y2K will lead to changes in consumer and producer behavior that could have significant impact on commodity markets."..... ....."Since a large share of global commodities production is traded, a disruption in our capacity to transport commodities could lead to local shortages and surpluses," the bank said. "The transportation sector may face disruptions because of computer failures at the end of the year, but even before then, it may face a demand surge which disrupts normal shipping patterns."..... .....The bank said stockpiling before the end of the year could overburden the global transportation system. The millennium bug fears are already being reflected in freight prices. Dry bulk ocean freight rates increased 14 percent in the April-June quarter and rose 45 percent since January lows. Experts say Asia's economic recovery contributed to the price rises, but Y2K was a key factor..... .....A continuing surge in demand and higher prices could impact commodities in different ways. A shortage of shipping space could hit high importers of food, fuel and raw materials. High-value bulk commodities and manufactures could squeeze out low-value commodities such as grain and tropical timber. This would disrupt normal shipping schedules and trigger wide price swings as exporters built surpluses and importers faced shortages.....

To: NickSE who wrote (56503)	8/16/1999 10:02:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Nick, the bond market is getting support from a long-term trendline that goes all the way back to 1984, I don't think we will go higher than 6.35 this year, and we may have already seen the high in yield this past week. I could believe we might make one new high in yield, but I think rates are very close to the top. The US$ is more open ended imo JOhn

To: NickSE who wrote (56503)	8/25/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: NickSE	Respond to of 86076

Some rummy P&F entrails for the thread.... Treasury Bonds 30-yr September 1999 (CBOT:USU9) 116.75 <---- Sitting right now at the bearish resistance line which is strong resistance. 117.75 <---- Break needed to confirm the reversal to bull. Don't be suprised to see a good sized rally if we break this as it would be a spread triple top buy signal and reversal of trend. charts.quotewatch.com Gold August 1999 (COMEX:GCQ9) 253.00 <---- Has generated a spread triple bottom sell signal today and will probably be given away free in cereal boxes by the end of the year. charts.quotewatch.com Later, Nick