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To: gpowell who wrote (14559)	8/15/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Installation is starting to accelerate so you can't fix a slope. The slope is changing and they're no where near the inflection. That is, maybe it has been 2x per unit of time, but it is rising maybe to 5x or higher. Eventually it will cool to 1x, constant growth.

To: gpowell who wrote (14559)	8/15/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Respond to of 29970

So if it's 5 fold then by 2003 were getting into respectable numbers. By 2003, the sub numbers will be somewhere around 5 mill to 10 mill. TJ is more optimistic and expects a penetration ratio of 25%. TJ may know a lot of the things we don't. Suppose ATHM to reach 7.5 mill by that time, with only 4% churn, this company will have reached a critical mass status that would guarantee satisfactory growth from that point on. AOL, even with 40 mill to 50 mill by that time, is definitely going to worry. The reason is: No matter how proliferate Black & White TV is, when Color TV gets into critical mass, BW TV will soon be replaced. So AOL's 40 million sub is nothing mighty. What about a churn rate of 70%, it's going to quickly reduce 40 mill to 10 mill.