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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (39050)	8/15/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116915

Congress & South Africa Those are subjective. If the POG doesn't decline any further, can we as statisticians then suggest that I going long had an effect on the POG? Does the sum of the parts create a whole, or does the belief in the parts cause the whole to respond. This is the problem with conspiracies: "They have no basis in analysis" To suggest that Goldman is long, could be a fallacy to suck in the XAU stocks higher, or it could be that they are very bullish. But consider the first. If I were a conspirator type of person, and I wanted to milk the investor of millions. Would I not recommend the Gold stocks, after I accumalated them myself? Imagine investing say 124 Million in ABX/PDG/NEM/HM. Then your recommendations hits the street. Others then buy the same equities. Next you add support to the XAU buy causing a slight increase in the POG to $261 over the coming weeks. This causes the XAU index to climb from 58 to 72 {24%) while gold climbed from $250-$261... (4.4%) Now I have 124 Mill in Gold futures {but around 150M in Gold stock equity} But the real increase in marginal GOLD was < $10 M. So effectively I made (124M/5872-10M-124M) := 20 M on going long with the XAU. Kinda cool the way you can buy a little gold, and force the XAU up? This is why the XAU almost always moves before gold. But does it matter? Well what if they short the same gold stocks, and run it down too? The gold is still in Comex warehouses* can't that also be looked at as a positive? As long as the gold is in the warehouse, NO. The investors in GOLD stocks may be used once again. But this time on the short side. If you believe in conspiracies about massive short positions, then you partake in the artificial manipulation of the gold markets by default. You may not know, but analysis of the same is beyond your scope. Supply and demand must ALWAYS equal at the spot price. So why did the Goldman Sach do it NOW? They seem an opportunity when the US Dollar index started to dive. decisionpoint.com And no doubt in the coming weeks as the same US dollar index climbs, they'll be the first to flip bearish again, unload their positions, and claim that the strength of the US dollar caused the POG to diminish. Hutch. PS: Gold may not be over valued, but the XAU is grossly over valued.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (39050)	8/15/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116915

Prison And Jail Population Hits Record High 04:48 p.m Aug 15, 1999 Eastern WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. adult prisons and jails held a record 1.82 million inmates last year, meaning one out of every 149 residents was behind bars, the Justice Department reported Sunday. The department's Bureau of Justice Statistics said in its semiannual report that the prison and jail population at Dec. 31, 1998, rose 4.6 percent, or 80,400 inmates, from 1.74 million inmates in 1997. ''The population has been growing steadily,'' said Allen Beck of the statistics bureau. ''I don't think there's been a decline in more than 25 years,'' Beck said, referring to 1972 when there was a slight decline in the nation's prison population. Beck also said there is a real decline in serious crime nationally. Jails are different from prisons because they are locally operated and typically hold persons awaiting trial and those with sentences of one year or less. In 1997, for which the most recent ethnic breakdown is available, the federal and state prison population was 49 percent black, 48 percent white, 2 percent American Indian or Alaska Native and 1 percent Asian or Pacific Islander. The female prison population grew by 6.5 percent over the previous year, compared with the 4.7 percent increase in the number of men behind bars. There were 14 times more men than women in prison in 1998. The report said state prisons were operating at a 13 to 22 percent over-capacity, while federal prisons were 27 percent over capacity. Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.