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To: Len who wrote (1284)8/16/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: chaz  Respond to of 10934
 
.... I am thinking of selling some EMC to do just that. Any Thoughts?

Boy, that's a tough one isn't it! Everyone's guidelines will be different, but sooner or later you have to make a call...to hold what you've got, or part with a bit and add another, or sell it all and do something else.

Were it me, I would do a little bit of tea-leaf reading to establish in my mind what to expect of the two (or more) issues during the next window period. Your window may be six months, 12 months...you choose. Key to that is the growth rate of the market(s), and the share of it that each company holds. Toss in a little bit of math and you should arrive at what the sales for both companies could be. Toss in the margins each gets, divvy up by the number of shares, times your best guess or estimate for PE, and you come up with a future share price for that window. Then compare which represents the best growth from today's level. If your tax situation is figured in, a hold on a slower growing issue might be worth more than a buy into something faster. Damn, it gets hairy fast!

If the decision process above favors a sell and buy, I'd then try to do what Lindy over on GG says is impossible... time the transactions. I am not espousing technicals by any means, but Bolinger bands do seem to help guide me closer to a favorable moment.

Caveat: Anybody taking any of the above as Gospel needs to run, not walk, to his favorite shrink. I got there (above) by trial and error, and that includes lots of error.