To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (139253 ) 8/15/1999 8:01:00 PM From: Ian@SI Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Some very encouraging stats from SSB... Call me Pollyanna, but this certainly seems to augur very well for Dell's report on Tuesday. Ian.Friday, August 13, 1999 --SUMMARY:----Semiconductors * Demand for Pentium processors in the gray market remained strong last week as supply of BX chipsets tightened further. Look for Pentium price cuts August 22nd. Interest In AMD's Athlon is building but motherboard supply is short. * Trading of low-end processors was solid last week with firm Celeron pricing; AMD K6 demand picked up with a promise of new price cuts. * Spot prices for 64Mb DRAMs rose but dipped by week's end about $0.20 to $7.20 as aggressive brokers took some profit; we expect prices to remain in the $6.50-7.00 range for some time. * Prices for other commodity semiconductors remained strong, including Flash, SRAM, power MOSFETs, and general analog.* Our top picks include Intel, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, Integrated Device Technology, and International Rectifier. --OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------ Trading of high-end processors active last week. Our survey of the semiconductor channel last week showed ongoing demand for Pentiums, despite a slight decline in the discount/list spread from 5% to 9%, ahead of Intel (INTC, 1M) price cuts, scheduled for August 22nd. Brokers remained very upbeat as the seasonal sales continued to pickup up early and demand at the high-end continued to recover . The market still favors the P-III 450 but is rapidly shifting interest upscale to the P-III 500. A recovery at the high end and better Xeon sales should put a positive spin on Intel ASPs this quarter. BX Chipset prices rise further; Q3 being boosted by Y2K? Supporting evidence of a high-end upturn can be found in the PC chipset market, which is often a leading indicator of processor sales. The 440BX chipset, which couples with the Pentium II/III family, became the hottest single product in the spot market last week as spot prices rose several dollars to $46, up from $25 a month ago. Some of the tightness can be credited to the delay of the Rambus-ready 820, which was supposed to replace the 440BX by now. However, there is more to it than that: Intel has been telling visiting investor groups that Q3 sales are being boosted by Q4 pull-ins, which it credits to changing Y2K spending patterns. Remember, most of the Asian market is now in a Y2K catch-up mode by yearend. As we noted last week, July was a blockbuster month for Intel.