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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (73934)	8/15/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Mark: <Did you think the US will support the worlds economic imbalances forever?> Actually, it seems like you believe this will go on forever. The stock market depends on the strong dollar, trade deficit, low interest rate, foreign investment inflow situation to just go on and on -- it can't. The trade deficit and savings rate in the United States are unsustainable -- period. The question is not if this will trigger a reversal -- it is only a question of when. I am not saying it is easy to know if we are at that point -- I devote some effort to that topic. But we are either there or very close. This is the achilles heel of the market -- and heaven help you if you are on the wrong side of the trend. Maybe we have reached a pause in the reversal -- maybe not. But the bull is more than tired -- the bull is wounded and bleeding badly. You say the US will defend its interests -- but what is in the interest of the US? More of the same? Not likely. The imbalances are real enough -- and they have a name -- the stock market.

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (73934)	8/16/1999 12:14:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi Mark Fowler; Regarding when it comes time again the US will defend the dollar again. On this, we can all agree. The problem is that the US defends the dollar in only one way. Higher interest rates. The only question is when will the US be forced to defend the dollar, and how high will they have to raise interest rates to attract foreigners into funding even more of our ongoing trade deficits. The implications are quite nasty for the US stock market. -- Carl