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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (1068)	8/16/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

HI Fred; Yes I think the QQQ is used as a hedge a lot. But even so it has to track the NDX fairly close , in fact that's why it makes such a good hedge. If it gets off the NDX much then arbitrage players bring it back fairly fast. ----------- My DVI does not exactly track the indexes it just lets me see the Dollar Volume of the most active stocks and a composite of the Dollar Volume of the Most Active translates into real time market sentiment. This may or may not match the major indexes , or let me put it another way, while it don't always lead , and can't always be used to tell ahead of a change, when it does change a lot, then it's always right If you see the Dollar Volume and it's negative while the indexes are still climbing you have a "set up" for a fall, or the other way around. BUT more often than not they do track kinda close & you have to have patience to wait on a set up signal. This means you will be passing up some moves, that you may look back on and say wish I had bet that. But you will be also passing up some bad bets as well that for some reason we don't look back on as much. <G> --------------- Here is part of a PM on the QQQ I set to To: donald sew (who wrote...) From: James F. Hopkins Sunday, Aug 15 1999 1:02AM ET Well even if not a retest she should give half of it back on a dip. My DVI looks up ( very iffy ) but not for long unless some money flows back in. In comparing my DVI to the QQQ I found that since the start of the qqq money flow appears to be negative in spite of it's gains my guess on this is that the QQQ is held short against long bets on the hotter stocks in the NDX . In other words someone is picking the fastest gainers in the NDX to mo mo buy/sell, but then staying hedged off with shorts on the qqq. While they may lose some over time on the QQQ they make more on the up side of their long picks. AND they can't be squeezed !! at least not in the normal sense as they don't short the stocks. They are either long the stocks or out of them, but the QQQ is almost like the permanent short to catch the down runs. I'm not sure I'm explaining what I see worth a sit, but any way it's sold short as much or more than it's longed. ----------------------- ------------------- I went short the QQQ on the close Friday.. It's a sort of iffy bet so I'll hold it close but my DVI seems to say we will give back at least 2% of the gains. May take a couple of days, and by that point conditions could change so that we go on down, if not I'll close the short or box it off with a long. One thing is saying the market wants to go on up, another says it's gone up a tad fast already, a third says it never went down enough. It's all so iffy , but the key seems to be ( at this time ) in the dollar. The DVI is not giving any strong short term indications at this time. But it has a slightly up trend started on a mid term basis, which may reverse or get stonger like I say it's IFFY. While I went short the QQQ it's not with conviction and I'm not looking for more than the normal volatility to let me scalp a point..I'd favor more up side after a small dip Jim PS let me clear up this but any way it's sold short as much or more than it's longed.* what I mean is it's traded in and out on the short side more often than the long side. I'm feel sure it's more long but the longs dont trade (flip ) it as often.