AG: This most recent post by you is even lamer than most of your others:
1. I did not say I'd sell - I said I'd start to worry if the CEO sold in volume. I do not think less than 10% of his beneficial position is "volume" in the sense I was alluding to. Fred still owns or controls over 1.5 million shares - he remains the biggest stockholder of the company. I have spoken to him numerous times, including a few weeks ago. He is fiercely dedicated to achieving stock price appreciation the old fashioned way -- by making a lot of money and building a solid balance sheet -- and is still 100% aligned with the interests of the stockholders. Any implication to the contrary (and your implication is that Fred's recent sale is just the tip of the iceberg and all of it will come crashing down in the very near future) is pure BS and in defiance of the facts.
2. You refer to yourself in the third person. That is the first sign of a serious ego disorder. No surprise, just thought I'd point it out.
3. This thing is not circling the drain - in fact, I would love to see you look straight down into the drain as the water current spirals down (as you seem to believe it is) so that the explosion which is about to happen drenches you good when it finally takes place - then maybe you will snap out of the dream world you have been concocting to make your pitch against ATG.
4. The article by "a professor who Mr. Goldfinger studied under" could not be more inapplicable. First, the stocks alluded to in the article were "big NASDAQ stocks" -- stocks which are much further along in their development cycle than ATG is. These are stocks like eBAY, AMZN, CMGI, YHOO, ATHM etc. -- they have all been to $200 and back, whereas ATG has not even launched its premiere trading system yet. ATG's initial price spike has not even occurred yet (as you are soon to find out). The employees of ATG with stock options know that ATG will appreciate in value pretty dramatically once the system is launched and other aspects of the business plan are implemented -- and they are not selling any appreciable porton of their shares now -- for them to sell 10% of their positions at the last spike, or at next short term spike, would be much like me (or any other shareholder) selling 10% of my (our) positions when that spike occurs to take a little off the table, to lower our overall cost basis (to zero), to buy a new car or new house, and to otherwise act conservatively -- something I myself may do (but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it). If I (they) choose to do that, it does not at all reflect any less bullishness about ATG, just making a practical and sensible investment decision about risk management. Second, the bigger NASDAQ stocks mentioned in Gretchen's article are for the most part debt ridden, whereas ATG is not - there is almost no debt on its balance sheet, having chosen to finance operations through the issuance of equity, not the incurrence of debt (something of which you have been extremely critical, but which new looks like an especially good decision). Thus, the financial pressures you describe, which lead employees or other option holders of such companies to exercise options and sell the underlying stock rather than see further decline in the value of their interests (and thereby causing downward "death" spirals) simply is not present in relation to ATG. I expect the officers and directors with ATG options as a group to sell some of their stock at opportune times in the future (including the not too distant future) - that is what I would do if I were an officer or director of a publicly traded company, and a part of my compensation were paid in the form of equity. And I reiterate that officers and insiders sell stock for all sorts of reasons, many personal or having nothing whatsoever to do with their short term or long term bullishness regarding the stock involved. But any statement or implication that the ATG officers and directors are (a) pumping and dumping, (b) not aligned with the stockholders, and/or (c) acting in ways which reflect short or long term lack of confidence, is just wrong, not backed up by anything more than your intuition, and every bit as false as your prior posts to the effect that the fact that restricted stockholders were filing 144's signified something ominous. Exactly the opposite is true. This is not some BB stock where the story is interesting (but complete BS), the officers pump the story, and then they sell out in droves at the peaks - if that were the case, the officers of ATG would first have to be pumping the stock (they are not), Fred would have sold his shares (and a lot more than 150,000 of them) at $16-18 (not at $11-13), and other officers would be in there selling a majority of their positions as well. None of these things happened. You are mistaking events in the process of unfolding with "pump". It is a big mistake. Just look at the SEC approvals and the recent SEC filings (regarding the latest PHLX rule amendments for pricing the use of the system). They evidence a small cap company about to deploy a major stock trading system, not a BB stock about to fold its tent. Your inability to see this is confounding and will be your ruination, at least in relation to this investment.
5. Risk exists only in relation to an honest assessment of reality and bears a direct relation to potential reward. All development stage companies involve risk -- ATG as an investment involves risk and will continue to involve risk going forward -- risks of competition, risks of technological failure, risk that liquidity will be lacking, risk that systems in development will not make it to market due to lack of capital, risk that the capital markets as a whole will tank, etc. That is the nature of business, especially a tech business. Based on my own diligence, I believe ATG is a company that is very cognizant of the risks that confront them, and very prepared to take on those risks and conquer them. They may or may not succeed -- I am betting heavily that they will. But one risk that is NOT present, IMHO, is that they are a bunch of thieves engaged in a pump and dump. Which is why your posts are so laughable. Rather than take on the company on its own terms (whether the system itself will be successful, and why it may not be) you choose instead to concoct this fantasy about how we are all just inches from being totally duped out of our investments, as evidenced by actual and imagined insider sales, in order to fit it into a shorting pattern you have worked successfully with other companies in the past. You can't fit a square peg into a round hole. You have to take the company on its own terms and show that all that appears to be is not real before you throw out the accusation that it's nothing but a pump and dump. You have not done this, not by a long shot.
* * * *
I think the stock is in the mid-9's right now because investors remain uncertain whether ATG will meet its August timetable for phasing in VTS. That uncertainty is borne of prior experiences with timing, which is justified in an historical context, but probably not in this instance, given the Company's public press releases and pronouncements regarding August phase-in and the obvious status of its efforts before the SEC. Investors are nervous about buying in volume because a failure to meet the August timetable might mean a short term decline in stock price. But they are clearly not selling in volume either. Which is a very telltale sign, IMHO. If this were a dump in the making, the stock would be in free fall right now and volume would be heavy. That is clearly NOT happening. There is no selling pressure at all. What we have is a final "wait and see" pending the clearing of this final hurdle. When the system phases in, and other positive developments are announced (as most informed longs believe will inevitably happen in the next 2-3 weeks leading into the stockholder's meeting), the "wait and see" will be over and there will be enormous buying pressure (not to mention shorts covering). You apparently don't see it the same way - your prerogative to be sure. But do yourself a big favor -- do more than look at 144's and 4's and at the mainstream financial press; look a little closer at what the company is actually doing before accusing management of fraud and trying to fit the facts to suit your theory of how all BB stocks with a price spike are automatically fraudulent -- you could not be more off base with regard to ATG, and the day of reckoning for that type of shoddy due diligence is much closer than you think.
MST |
