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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ynot who wrote (56003)	8/16/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

Short Fallacies... LNET, PHCM.BCRX, CUST.Anyone trying for a short again. I think to try again. A word on CUST and BCRX..If anyone noticed CUST was up 15% in the last 3 trading sessions.. BCRX was up about 20% in the last 2 and I didn't follow even further back but I saw the chart. The shorters have lost a lot on CUST, BCRX if they were gung ho and hung on. They did not short at the right time yet they insist they were correct. Well they weren't. I was wrong and my PHCM short and I can readily admit it, but why these 'gung ho' shorters that are seeing these stocks surge still think they are doing the right thing holding a short 'through its surge upwards' is beyond me. I have no doubt we'll get our 10+ points on a PHCM short, but 'wait for the trade to come to you'.. Don't chase and short a stock because the companies.. fundamentals suck. I did a scan last night for the worst stock as far as fundamentals, very high debt no money, low current ratio, low inventory turnover, high interest rates should have killed this company. I came up with LNET.. look at the chart of this company. quote.yahoo.com I escaped my short in the morning, not comitting to anything but the technical trend. Don't get caught up in the 'short to the death' madness because others are holding and are nervous nellies. Short only when the trend and your charts call for it.. The really popular stocks like CUST and BCRX, (I'm not familiar with the last) but CUST is not going anywhere that quickly. It will be up and down just like the others. I saw SNDK surge more and I waited till the intraday chart sloped downward and shorted. I did the same with INSS.. If I had had more time I would have gotten PMCS puts, but I didn't..

To: ynot who wrote (56003)	8/17/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: kendall harmon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Bill Gross of PIMCo on bonds and the economy Arguing that the U.S. economy is bound to slow, Gross writes: "The slower economy should halt this mini-bear market somewhere close to 6.50% for long U.S. Treasury bonds and allow for positive total returns for the bond market from the fourth quarter onward." Following a bizarre introductory anecdote that has to be read to be believed, Gross writes that the economy is bound for a fall, "maybe not down to floor level, which would indicate recession, but low enough to scare the living daylights out of those who are convinced our nearly nine-year economic recovery will never die." Four factors will cause the slowdown, Gross says, "allowing interest rates to peak near current levels and eventually move lower." The first is long-term interest rates themselves, higher now than they have been in more than a year. Higher mortgage rates will slow the housing sector, while higher corporate bond yields will curb capital spending by businesses. The second is lower stock prices. Gross estimates that the outsized stock-market gains of recent years are responsible for as much as $100 billion a year of consumer spending. With stocks stalling, he believes consumer spending growth will tail off, too. Third, Gross says, the recent rise in oil prices will leave consumers "with less money to splurge at the movies or the mall." Finally, he says, most of the spending that companies will do to cope with Y2K has been done. "From now on, those tens of billions of dollars per quarter that have been spent to avoid a technological calamity will just not be there any more to stimulate the economy." The market is deeply interested in what Gross has to say, according to Kevin Logan, senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. "He's been right when others were wrong," Logan says. "Since 1996, he's been contrarian and more right than wrong."