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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: F Robert Simms who wrote (23129)	8/16/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert, >>>> I guess the Dow didn't go down enough for your sell. That the Dow failed it's class 1 sell is bullish, if I understand your system. <<<< There are early signs that the response to the CLASS 1 SELL signal could be weak, but for different reasons. Today was the BUY-IN DAY at the HIGHs of the DAY. What is more common for a BUY-IN day is FLATNESS and a close off the intraday highs. The NAZ closed off its highs and was relatively flat and formed a DOJI/SPINNING TOP which is a sign of indecision and which commonly occurs at tops. However the DOW and SPX both closed at their highs. So 1 of the 3 major indices gave a hint of a short-term top(1-5 days), but the other 2 did not. I feel that this is the first hint that the pullback could be small. If the day after the BUY-IN day is up significantly intraday for the 3 major indices(75+ DOW points), that would be another hint that the pullback could be small, and even negated. If the market was to close off the highs but still positive tomorrow, that would be another hint that the pullback could be small. The CLASS 1 SELL signal is closely timed to the CPI news, so if the news is bad, my guess is that we should at least see a retest of the recent lows, and if the news is good the market may move up a few days more and the following pullback should be weak. If the news is only fair, we could still see some selling immediately in light of the sell signal. Hope that better explains it. seeya