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To: John Graybill who wrote (47687)	8/16/1999 6:09:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

John, he's obviously not a fan of the "August 7th peak" theory. 8/7 was Saturday. It climbs the next trading day and then peaks @ 69 5/16 on Tuesday. So the theory was off by a day. Could also look at it as: 5th day in August 1998. 5th day in August 1997. 5th/6th days in August 1996. 7th day in August 1999? He also seems have an interesting conception of the "risk/reward" trade-off. After the climb this thing's had, you're going to go for another 5 15/16th's up to 70? A whopping 9.26%? A whopping 9.26% when it already peaked out at 69 5/16--11/16th's away from the new target--last week? A whopping 9.25% when for the last three years it has averaged a 26.33% fall from it's "8/7 high" to its intraday low 8/31? 1996 -14.29% 1997 -26.12% 1998 -38.59% The past doesn't predict the future, but obviously there was something happening in terms of real world dynamics the last three years that would cause that type of rise and fall. Is it: Rise = a) seasonal demand + rising price feedback loop + b)annual Robbie Stephens smiley time + c) annual analyst riot on heels of a + b Fall = the market realizing its own excesses in pricing in the above + ??? Good trading, Tom

To: John Graybill who wrote (47687)	8/17/1999 11:33:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 53903

John, apologies for misleading the "troops" here, in a recent posting I suggested shorting on a break down of $64 for a target which should be "no better" than %48, well, it seems that $58 is melting away, and now I have the possibilities of a very rapid move all the way to the very high $30 (like $39 or so). Mind you, this is "possibility", the more likely one is resumption of the major scenario from the $50 to $52 area. I would not go back to the long side until HAL says so (VBG). Zeev