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Biotech / Medical : Biotech vs. Shorts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (151)	8/16/1999 6:58:00 PM
From: Pseudo Biologist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 427

Wow, this is great stuff. Let me take a "devil's advocate" one-liner short shot at your list just for fun: <<Out of the latter if you picked a 15 stock portfolio of: VRTX - PI does not sell much. Co is too academic GELX - know nothing about this one ALKS - overvalued? CLTR - Rituxan will eat its lunch. Who needs a murine radiolabeled Ab if simple chimeric molecule works just as well? NPSP - know nothing about this one either AVIR - live virus too dangerous, will never be approved ALGO - know nothing about this one CELG - thalidomide will stay as small niche drug. Other stuff too early stage. Chiral ritalin not enough benefit (see SEPR) ELN - accountants are crooks. AD's stuff too early stage. Got taken by Neurex's scam. TKTX - overvalued and Amgen will crush them in court GENZ - niche diseases, complicated share structure with all those tracking baby genzymes cover up for scam SEPR - seldane/allegra case was one in a million; all other ICEs will not show enough of a benefit. FDA has tied their hands to push Xopenex; given that, how can they ever compete with generics? Repeat for every other drug in their pipeline. INCY - no science, no leverage, generic stuff; make money soon or else. HGSI's and MLNM's business plans proven superior. Pretty superficial but probably more substantial than recent stuff from TSC -g- P(S)B

To: Biomaven who wrote (151)	8/16/1999 7:32:00 PM
From: celeryroot.com	Respond to of 427

I suspect a good portion of Elan might be an arbitrage play

To: Biomaven who wrote (151)	8/16/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 427

< list of biotechs sorted by open short interest > Out of your list CHIR, ELN, AMGN, and QGENF have derivatives a-go-go listed on them all over the place and may be dirty numbers IMO. DAK

To: Biomaven who wrote (151)	8/17/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: biowa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 427

Peter, Having started this, I'll chime in w/ my one liners pro and con on your portfolio for what they're worth: VRTX - Over-focused on science, which leads to burn rate; Now over in on the Munch thread that makes them an attractive candidate. GELX - SunPharm looks synergistic, but this has not been one I've followed closely ALKS - Pass CLTR - IMO the clinical data shows it works better than rituximab. Would NHL patients care if it came from a rhinoceros? NPSP - Spending all their time waiting on partners, so you're exposed to AMGN's timing in advancing their collaboration AVIR - This could really increase the percentage vaccinated, which has a huge impact on flu season severity (public health motivation), and oral vaccines are how many seasons away; A live vaccine may be an issue with the FDA, but will they nix the product or just require Phase IV studies? ALGO - Pass CELG - There was some hype to the resurrecting the evil Thalidomide story, but now they're taking it into more indications that most other new products ELN - They are doing alot of deals, its dangerous to short someone w/ that much opportunity to surprise you TKTX - TKTX may win very well at the bar, but AMGN in court is a little like Mike Tyson was in the ring - unless they bite the judge's ear off - and these guys seem a little too cocky for someone who has yet to get a product approved GENZ - Don't see the short on this one SEPR - I'm an acknowledged agnostic here, but I would probably short this at times (I'm not currently). Don't believe they've demonstrated the validity of ICE's yet INCY - Alot of people owe alot of royalties here; unfortunately they keep trying to ruin that with non-info products. That said, what events will send the shorts covering in each of these? I think that may be the problem w/ INCY; is there a defining event? biowa