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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1446)	8/17/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

N, I imagine that HRP wants to maintain a decent ownership in the senior housing since it is undervalued in their opinion, and would be a good investment. Gregor, CEI, GRT and TRI are my largest positions now. I also have a lot of GTA and TEE. They are hit because FGCI is probably going to go bankrupt, but it has always had different growth rates than the golf REITs, and a flurry of new golfers will likely show up, now that Tiger has won another major. The PGA had it's biggest rating share since 1986 according to the Washington Post today. Jim, I am on vacation, so I haven't put in a call to CEI yet to find out what all this Charter stuff means. I definitely didn't understand how their position was effected by reading the press release. I have no idea what their new exposure will be, but it most likely is good news on a situation that was overblown to begin with. If WDN is bought out, it will most likely be by a public REIT, with AIV and EQR among the most likely. If so, the "S" preferred should be very safe, as I imagine both can borrow money much cheaper than the current 12%, and would likely retire some or all of this debt at these levels. Sorry that you missed KIDE. I would never chase it here, but I definitely won't sell, since I think it has internet type growth potential with real earnings for 3-12 more months. Hope my kid gets bored with the fad a few weeks before the average kid, so I can get out someone near the top. Ray, RFS is probably safe. It all depends on whether or not management is acutely aware of how severe the competition is, due to overbuilding. FFO has begun to drop, and if it only drops 20-30% total from here, then the dividend is quite safe and this will be a good long term investment, especially since they are buying back shares. AEC has been buying back some also and their stock and FFO have since fallen precipitously. So... beware. I bought a 1% position at 11-1/16 a week ago and feel comfortable with them, but this is only an unsophisticated opinion. I'll probably clear out in weeks if it rebounds to 12-1/2 or 13.