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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (49397)	8/17/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

...bleary-eyed & jet lagged; but strongly buying RRC & adding MEXP here. Did not expect this type of retracement in MEXP during my one week vacation. Have to use it as a point to average in and add to holdings.. I sure did not see anything in the earnings release that ''should'' be indicative of this sell off. Too many short term individual traders with unrealistic expectations and a lack of understanding of the story imho. - not a bad thing however; without a shakeout of short - term & weak handed holders; a firm base for the next move through $4 can not occur. This company is on track to do $1.00 cfps with their under the market hedges based from the trailing quarters. The price has virtually no factoring for the yet to be realized higher market prices for nat gas - which look strong and are getting stronger going forward as well... $2.25 is 2.45 x cash flow per share on a trailing basis using what is a near - worst case scenario.'' - year 2000 estimates are for $1.62 cfps - only 1.38 x cfps here ?!?!... given the potential for a restructuring of their present credit line, the refinancing into a new line, the potential for other debt & equity offerings that will allow them to accelerate the Salt Dome development that has been successfull thus far; along with the Blackfoot holding - which we are basically getting ''free'' here imho; this is perhaps the last real nice cheapo/no-brainer buying opp. I'll be surprised if we do not see $3 again within 2 weeks fwiw. I recall from an earlier analyst report ( Raymond James ?) that MEXP would add $1.4 Million ''NET" income for each .10 mcf increase in Nat Gas prices. They are 80%+ leveraged to Nat Gas here... this company is NOT wallowing under a near unsourmountable debt load - which virtually all of its peers at this valuation level are - that is why I continue to pound the table on this little company. They have yet to realize significant revenue from this present Nat Gas price environment. Time will tell... With RRC's terrible sub-market hedging locked into October - they still realized .42 cents cfps for the qtr/$1.68 annualized cfps. This is only 3.24 x cfps - versus a historic average of 4-9 x cfps. Using merely a 5 x cfps valuation - this supports a price of $8.40. Deutsche Bank just raised price target to $10 off of the JV news.. production is also up 31% etc. Have to think the Street is waiting for the JV to close... this is just too cheap to its peers here imo. CEO pointing to the continued debt reductions and ''significant'' improvement in Q3 & Q4 cfps upcoming - gotta love this here on a pullback from $7. <<Commenting on the results, John H. Pinkerton, President and Chief Executive Officer, noted, ''Our primary objective for the year is to reduce debt and to put the Company into a stronger financial position. Much has been accomplished in the last six months and the third quarter should see additional progress. By September 30, we expect to complete our Appalachian joint venture, conclude several smaller property sales and extend our bank credit agreements. Discretionary cash flow should rise significantly over the next six months with improved oil and gas prices. Assuming our initiatives prove successful and current energy prices are maintained, our total debt should fall by more than $120 million by year-end and our recourse bank debt should drop by more than half. In the interim, we are pleased with our operating results and remain focused on reducing costs. While much remains to be done, we are making steady progress in reestablishing Range's financial flexibility.'' >> Anyone else adding RRC or MEXP here ? Am I missing something... ? personally; imo - you gotta believe the story & the numbers - if you do - buy confidently into these blow offs and wait for the rest of the crowd to ''re-arrive'' later - back at the party...