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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (74266)8/17/1999 4:18:00 PM
From: Bearded One  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
If you accept the revenue growth as attainable for the internets then that leaves profitability... a biggie but only half of the issues that existed last year when nobody bought into the growth.

There is never an issue with revenue growth as long as one is totally unconcerned about future profitability. Try selling 100 dollar bills on the internet for 95 dollars.

Let me give my breakdown of different revenue/growth plans:

1) Grow revenue but not so quickly as to interrupt profitability.
2) Grow revenue with an aim towards increasing profitability later.
3) Grow revenue beyond the possibility of increasing profitability.

Number 2 is the standard goal of an expanding company, but the company has to be careful not to slip into Number 3. Number 3 is known as 'overexpansion.' It's what brought down Boston Chicken. Recently, all the Discovery Zones in the New Jersey area had to close down because of it, which truly upset my daughter. It's what will destroy Amazon.

The problem for the investor is that it is extremely difficult to see the difference between #3 and #2. Mary Meeker also seems to have this problem.

What truly offends me is that I believe that Amazon management willfully stepped from #2 to #3 to support their stock options. I do not believe that management is concerned about shareholder welfare. And that is a natural incentive to short.